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rice export
Fertilizer prices have more than doubled from last year to around $950-1,000 per ton in 2022 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, putting downward pressure on Thailand's rice production, especially in the rainy season due to high fertilizer price.
A decrease of about 2-8 million tons or about 10% from the previous year, but the dry season rice production was not affected by the high fertilizer price due to the harvest period, making the total supply of rice production plus stocks in 2022 about 2,430 ton.
After deducting the external demand, the above-mentioned total supply has slightly increased to the rice export target of about 7 million tons and domestic consumption of about 1,300 tons of ric.
ton is at a relatively tight level, and the tight domestic rice supply situation may not be temporar.
priceA decrease of about 2-8 million tons or about 10% from the previous year, but the dry season rice production was not affected by the high fertilizer price due to the harvest period, making the total supply of rice production plus stocks in 2022 about 2,430 ton.
After deducting the external demand, the above-mentioned total supply has slightly increased to the rice export target of about 7 million tons and domestic consumption of about 1,300 tons of ric.
ton is at a relatively tight level, and the tight domestic rice supply situation may not be temporar.
Considering that the demand-side situation will improve this year, it may exacerbate the decline in rice supply due to higher fertilizer prices and become a risk factor for the tighter domestic redundant rice supply in Thailan.
Foreign demand reflected through Thai rice exports is expected to be better than the previous year, as the release of pent-up demand in the international market, the easing of container problems, and the depreciation of the Thai baht against the US dollar will help drive Thai rice export.
Rice Export Target Up to 7 million tons, an increase of about 15% year-on-year, but still at a low level due to the impact of fierce global competition, especially from Vietnam and Indi.
Vietnam and India are not expected to take measures to restrict rice exports this year, as their rice production is at a high level, supported by a favorable climate, while Thai rice will still face many challenges in price competition due to higher prices and production costs than competitor.
. After deducting rice exports and domestic consumption, Thailand's domestic surplus rice supply may be more tight, although this will benefit rice exports, on the other hand, in the case of high uncertainty caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it may affect Thailan.
Rice suppl.
Therefore, while rice exports have improved slightly in the context of reduced rice production in 2022, this will only exacerbate the risk that Thailand may experience a tight domestic rice suppl.
Foreign demand reflected through Thai rice exports is expected to be better than the previous year, as the release of pent-up demand in the international market, the easing of container problems, and the depreciation of the Thai baht against the US dollar will help drive Thai rice export.
Rice Export Target Up to 7 million tons, an increase of about 15% year-on-year, but still at a low level due to the impact of fierce global competition, especially from Vietnam and Indi.
Vietnam and India are not expected to take measures to restrict rice exports this year, as their rice production is at a high level, supported by a favorable climate, while Thai rice will still face many challenges in price competition due to higher prices and production costs than competitor.
. After deducting rice exports and domestic consumption, Thailand's domestic surplus rice supply may be more tight, although this will benefit rice exports, on the other hand, in the case of high uncertainty caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it may affect Thailan.
Rice suppl.
Therefore, while rice exports have improved slightly in the context of reduced rice production in 2022, this will only exacerbate the risk that Thailand may experience a tight domestic rice suppl.
Looking ahead, the Kaitai Research Center expects that in 2023, Thailand's domestic rice supply will remain at risk of tight supply due to the highly uncertain global situation, including the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the difficulty in predicting when it will end, leading to high fertilizer price.
Rice production in the rainy and dry seasons, climate change trends that tend to intensify, and rising but still low rice prices may not motivate farmers to expand productio.
These pressures have resulted in Thai rice production trending down to 18-15 million tonnes without a return to high production in the short term, and rice inventories also trending dow.
Rice production in the rainy and dry seasons, climate change trends that tend to intensify, and rising but still low rice prices may not motivate farmers to expand productio.
These pressures have resulted in Thai rice production trending down to 18-15 million tonnes without a return to high production in the short term, and rice inventories also trending dow.
Although the rice demand situation has not changed significantly, that is, Thailand's rice exports are still at a low level of about 5 million tons due to the fierce price competition that Thailand faces in the international market, but this also reduces Thailand's domestic redundant rice supply to about 90-240 tons The risk of tight levels of 10,000 tons, while continuing high production costs will push domestic rice prices to continue to rise from the previous yea.
In addition, if Thai rice exports are higher than forecast, supported by factors including competitors experiencing supply-side shocks (floods, drought, export restrictive policies), better-than-expected improvement in container issues and higher prices for Thai rice Competitiveness, et.
, may make Thailand more vulnerable to the risk of tight domestic rice supply in the futur.
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, may make Thailand more vulnerable to the risk of tight domestic rice supply in the futur.
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