Terminal coal demand enters the downward range

At the "Ensuring Supply, Promoting Safety, and Seeking Development-Energy and Power Supply and Demand Security Seminar" held recently, industry experts judged that this year's coal supply and demand tension in China has initially eased, and the coal supply and demand situation next year is likely to be further relaxed.

Multiple factors cause coal prices to run high

Since the beginning of this year, although the scale of coal construction in China has not increased significantly, industrial production has continued to be vigorous, driving the rapid growth of China's energy demand, and the growth rate of coal consumption in key power plants has remained high

Affected by factors such as environmental protection and safety inspections, the release of coal production capacity in China has been limited, and international inflation transmission factors have been superimposed.

"Coal prices continue to rise, mainly because this year's coal prices are affected by tight supply and demand, insufficient supply of imported coal, liquidity, and speculation

Probability of coal supply and demand will be loose next year

According to Hao Xiangbin, chief analyst of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, since September, in order to adapt to the energy and power supply situation, the country has gradually liberalized some coal production capacity and coal inventory has been quickly replenished.

"From the demand side, the fundamentals of coal demand in 2022 are generally not strong

"The tight supply and demand of thermal coal in 2022 will be greatly alleviated

Demand will stabilize at around 2.
8 billion tons of standard coal

Experts in the industry have unanimously judged that fossil energy is still China's main energy source in the near future.
As the pace of energy structure adjustment accelerates, the terminal demand for coal, oil, and natural gas will peak in turn
.
China's coal demand is on a downward trend
.

The recently released "China Energy and Power Development Outlook 2021" also shows that under the influence of China's energy supply-side structural reform, environmental pollution control and low-carbon development requirements, the terminal coal demand has entered a downward range, and it will be replaced steadily during 2020-2035.
Substitution will accelerate further after the year, and the proportion of final energy demand will drop below 20% in 2040, and will further drop below 10% after 2045.
After 2050, only a small amount of coal will be used as raw material in the terminal
.

According to research conducted by the State Grid Energy Research Institute, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the early period of the "15th Five-Year Plan", the proportion of coal in the total primary energy demand is at a high level, and it will decline rapidly after 2030
.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China will strictly control the growth of coal.
The control of bulk coal and the reduction of coal in key industries are becoming stricter.
However, the rapid growth of power demand will promote the high level of coal consumption for power generation
.
Overall, coal demand will stabilize at around 2.
8 billion tons of standard coal
.

　　"The current tight balance of coal still exists.
It is still not enough to rely on the market to adjust coal prices to make it return to a reasonable space
.
" Zhou Chaoyang suggested that the state should increase coal price control and guide thermal coal prices back to the green range as soon as possible
.
In addition, the state needs to continue to speed up the procedures for new coal mines, and urge coal-producing provinces to effectively implement the increase and form a normalized production capacity; supervise local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises to strictly implement medium and long-term contracts, and strengthen the performance of signed long-term agreements Supervision; optimize the deployment of the types of railway freight wagons, accelerate the breakthrough of the "jammed neck" problem that restricts transportation capacity, and give priority to supporting and guaranteeing power plants with low contract inventory of the Electricity Coal Long-term Association
.
(Reporter Sunan)

Transfer from: China Energy News