Temporary measures to postpone the price of genetically modified soybeans face a wave band impact

Introduction: after the implementation of the GM safety management policy, China's soybean and rapeseed imports decreased by 800 million US dollars in the first half of this year, expanding the trade surplus of agricultural products in the first half of this year to 2.99 billion US dollars, an increase of 970 million US dollars over the same period of last year Obviously, the implementation of transgenic policy has played a positive role in protecting the interests of domestic soybean farmers On October 11, China's Ministry of Agriculture issued an announcement to extend the implementation time of Interim Measures for genetically modified safety management by nine months The introduction of this policy shows that the means for the country to adjust soybean import is more mature Ely is conducive to reducing the overall price of domestic soybean imports Because of the benefits involved, the import control of genetically modified soybeans is not the same as that of faucets, which can be turned on and off at will As the largest soybean importing country in the world, how to make the processing and production get the supplement of foreign cheap soybean raw materials and increase the price of domestic soybeans on the premise of ensuring their own political interests is really an arduous task China's soybean production can only maintain about half of the domestic demand, so in the short term, the production of domestic soybean pressing industry is still difficult to leave the imported soybean The existence of this objective demand makes soybean import control only appropriate and timely, and the control means must be combined with the law of world soybean price change However, since the implementation of the gene transfer policy, the policy change is still mainly based on the national political and macroeconomic interests, and the time of promulgation and change is misplaced with the market Affected by the GM policy in the first half of this year, domestic manufacturers missed the low price period of the soybean market, and finally had to import a large amount at a high level, which also shows this point Generally, after November every year, American soybeans are in sufficient supply due to harvest At this time, the international price is generally at a lower level If the import of genetically modified soybeans is relaxed at this time, more cheap soybeans can be imported domestically The deadline of the original Interim Measures for genetically modified soybean in China is December 10 this year If not extended, the import of domestic soybean will miss the important golden time of international soybean low price Therefore, the extension of temporary measures for genetically modified crops is not only in the current political interests of the country, but also can ensure that domestic manufacturers can import foreign soybeans cheaply After the announcement of Ely's extension of Interim Measures for genetically modified organisms issued by the Ministry of agriculture, the relevant staff of the GM office said that the acquisition and use of interim certificates had more stringent regulations First of all, the original temporary measures stipulated that the overseas exporters need to provide the safety certificate of the country of origin; now, in addition to these documents, the overseas exporters also need to provide the valid safety evaluation documents approved by the country of origin for planting or listing, rather than the original documents that can be provided by a third country Therefore, the market expects that it will be difficult to import Brazilian soybeans, because the Brazilian government has not publicly allowed the cultivation of genetically modified soybeans so far Second, interim measures will be applied in batches, rather than in the original application, which can be used multiple times The concept of "batch" refers to "the same genetically modified organisms, the same consignor, the same consignee, the same means of transport and the same place of origin"; in addition, the identification of the importer must be applied for after the overseas supplier obtains the temporary certificate, rather than at the same time as before Therefore, although the issuance of temporary certificates is delayed, the application process of certificates is more detailed than before, which will increase the cost of soybean import to a certain extent The wave band impact of Ely's import control policies on prices still exists It is worth noting that many soybean manufacturers have ordered a large number of soybeans to ensure production because they are worried that the country will stop issuing temporary import certificates of genetically modified soybeans on December 20 According to traders, China ordered more soybeans in October and November than usual, with a total loading capacity of about 2.3 million tons Although the extension of the temporary measures may cause some companies that originally purchased a large number of soybeans to resell or postpone the shipment, these soybeans have been ordered after all, and the proportion of reselling is very small, which will still have an impact on the domestic soybean market in the short term Generally, soybean import takes about a month and a half, and the arrival time of large quantities of soybean ordered in advance may be around December According to the historical law, at this time, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the price is also at a low level In this way, in the second half of 2001, the phenomenon of overstock of spot goods caused by the sudden import of domestic manufacturers will inevitably not be staged again Although not as serious as last time, it may cause short-term oversupply of domestic soybean at the end of the year.