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The TDI market, which has been silent for a long time, finally began to exert its strength in the middle and late August.
The current price is running to 14,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), with a weekly increase of 14.
8%
.
"From the perspective of the market outlook, although the intention of the supply side to support the market is obvious, the current situation of oversupply in the market is difficult to change.
Even in the peak season of 'Golden Nine', it is expected that the TDI market will not have much room for growth
.
Continued rise with heavy resistance
Continued rise with heavy resistanceEntering the middle and late August, the price of TDI almost went up in a straight line, with a maximum rise of 3,000 yuan
.
It is understood that on August 13, the Covestro unit in the United States suffered a sudden failure, and domestic sources of goods were given priority for export, and the balance of the market was biased towards the seller
.
Industry insiders said the rise was not due to strong demand
.
In addition, since the beginning of this year, excessive social inventory in the TDI market has almost become the norm.
Although factories are out of stock, neither middlemen nor downstream enterprises in the market have such troubles.
The hoarding of low-priced goods below 10,000 yuan still exists.
Under the circumstance that the price inventory can still support a long period of time, after the market has risen to the current high level, the downstream conflict is obvious, and it begins to digest the previous inventory, and the empty rise market without downstream follow-up reappears
.
Cost is difficult to strengthen
Cost is difficult to strengthenFrom the perspective of TDI raw material toluene, the market has been weak and consolidated recently, and it is difficult to support the upward trend of the TDI market in terms of cost
.
In early August, the toluene inventory in East China climbed to the peak in the past three years, reaching as high as 94,500 tons
.
Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, said that in the sluggish market environment of the chemical industry and the entire economy, the demand for oil, solvents, TDI, PX and other related needs continued to be sluggish.
Restrict toluene market outlook
.
Not only that, due to the weakening of the domestic market, the price difference of toluene in China, South Korea and US dollars has been maintained below the basic arbitrage line for a long time, and the price difference is difficult to cover the freight
.
At present, although the inventory of toluene is declining, it is relatively slow, and merchants lack confidence in the market
.
"On the whole, the toluene market will still be in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the sales pressure of some businesses will further increase
.
In addition, the crude oil futures price fluctuates in the range, and the rise in gasoline prices is hindered, and the demand for mixed oil blending is difficult to substantially increase.
The toluene market outlook will cause drag, and it is difficult to bring cost support to the TDI market
.
" Wang Quanping said
.
Demand remains muted
Demand remains mutedIndustry insiders believe that late August is still a low season for production and sales in the domestic downstream industry, and this situation may improve after entering the "Golden Nine" peak season
.
However, from last year, the peak season did not bring a sharp rise in the TDI market, the demand did not increase as expected, and the market did not undergo much reversal
.
This year's epidemic combined with the economic downturn may continue the situation of last year, and the industry's expectations for the "Golden Nine" peak season are not high
.
Specifically, the downstream polyether market of TDI is affected by the continuous increase of raw material propylene oxide, and the cost is supported upward
.
Part of the downstream just needs to focus on replenishing positions, and the overall new orders have increased significantly
.
However, as the price of soft foam rises, the downstream resistance heats up, and the buying interest gradually decreases.
The continuity of new orders in the market is limited, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.
The factory mainly delivers pre-orders
.
On the whole, the overall downstream demand is sluggish, the transaction of new orders is limited, and the rigid demand in the market is mainly, and it is difficult to generate a strong support for the TDI market
.
From the perspective of terminal demand, the United States has launched a countervailing investigation on mattresses imported from China, and the export volume of mattresses will decrease, which is difficult to bring demand support to the TDI market
.
In addition, shrinking TDI exports also increased the pressure on the domestic market
.
From the export data, China's TDI export volume in the first half of the year was 65,000 tons, a decrease of 44.
6% over the same period last year
.
At present, the foreign epidemic has not been effectively controlled, and it is expected that the TDI export market will remain sluggish in the later period, which will directly affect the domestic market
.
