TDI: dawning in the downturn

Since July, the domestic TDI market has been intertwined with longs and shorts, and prices have fluctuated slightly
.

However, industry analysts believe that the peak season for TDI demand is approaching, coupled with the increase in demand for downstream products such as sponges caused by floods in Henan, Jiangsu and other places, and there are not many sources of market circulation, manufacturers are strongly willing to stand up for prices, and TDI prices will rise, and the market may go out.
Trough
.

Phase bottoming is completed

Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Research Institute of Chemical Industry, introduced that factors such as the current factory closure control and shipment delays have caused supply to shrink, and the overall holdings of middlemen are low, which has led to an increase in TDI prices
.

From the external perspective, the TDI market situation is very good
.

From the perspective of supply, Yantai Juli’s “3+5” 10,000-ton/year plant was shut down for maintenance, and Xinjiang Juli’s 150,000-ton/year plant was shut down on July 2 and has not yet resumed.
The current domestic TDI industry operating rate is stable at 80.
33%.

.

　　“Currently, the overall installation load of the supplier has not increased significantly
.

　　The raw materials are big and stable

　　At present, the toluene market at the TDI raw material side is largely stable, and the support for the cost of TDI remains stable
.

　　According to Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, the supply and demand pressure of toluene is still high, the port spot resources are sufficient, and the demand for downstream fine chemicals is weak.

.

　　From the current point of view, Sinopec Chemical Sales East China Branch and Sinopec Chemical Sales South China Branch listed prices of toluene stable in July, Shanghai Petrochemical, Jinling Petrochemical, Yangzi BASF, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical all implemented 5750 yuan in cash and self-increasing prices.
; Maoming Petrochemical implemented 5,700 yuan in cash to raise the price
.

　　Wang Quanping said that due to the weakening of procurement from PX companies, the toluene market has returned to quiet
.

　　From the perspective of the toluene industry chain, the upstream pure benzene market is negotiating lower, and the corporate pure benzene listing price is lowered, but the spot supply is tight and the fundamentals are supported, and the toluene market has not fallen sharply
.

　　"In view of the market outlook, the toluene market may continue to consolidate within a narrow range, and the support for the cost of TDI remains neutral
.

　　Expected increase in demand

　　From the downstream point of view, the overall demand for TDI is gradually increasing
.

　　Meng Xianxing said that due to the continuous rise of polyether, the sponge price in Henan, Jiangsu and other places increased by 6% to 8%, and South China increased by 10%; the curing agent market rose steadily, and the price of L-75 was between 15,000 and 16,500; The runway and elastomer markets have recovered, and the use of TDI has increased slightly
.
In addition, due to the rising market for modified MDI, the use of TDI in the automotive industry has increased
.

　　The industry generally stated that the consumption of TDI in the second half of the year was slightly better than that of the first half.
In addition, during August to September, Gansu Baiyin and Wanhua Chemical had overhauled, and the suppliers had no inventory and sales pressure
.
Although it is difficult for TDI exports in the second half of the year to continue the boom in the first half of the year, the epidemic in Southeast Asia has caused orders to return, and orders for terminal export-oriented enterprises may be released steadily
.
Under the game of supply and demand, the TDI market tends to rise but never fall
.

　　Statistics show that in the first half of the year, the total domestic apparent consumption of polyether is expected to be 1.
753 million tons, an increase of 284,000 tons over the same period last year, or 19.
36%.
This trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year
.
In addition, from the perspective of exports, domestic polyether exports in the first half of the year totaled 595,000 tons, an increase of 68% over the same period last year
.

　　From the perspective of capacity release, from April to June, Jiahua Chemical’s 100,000-ton/year POP polyether plant, Shandong Longhua’s 150,000-ton/year POP polyether plant, and Tianjiao Chemical’s 60,000-ton/year polyether plant will be put into operation
.
In addition, Bluestar Dongda's new plant with a 300,000-ton/year polyether device was put into operation, and some old plants were relocated
.
Based on the above, the domestic polyether production capacity increased to 6.
223 million tons per year in June, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with 2020, an increase of 0.
97%
.

　　In addition, in the fourth quarter, the production capacity of multiple polyether devices such as China National Offshore & Shell, Shandong Inov Corporation and Wanhua Chemical will gradually release.
In addition, the peak season is approaching, which may drive the TDI market to perform well
.