Survey: China's sugar imports may be halved in 2012/13

:: China's sugar imports are expected to halve this year. Annual sugar production for 2012/13 is expected to increase by 16% compared with the previous year--- Consumption is flat --- A Reuters survey released on Thursday showed that China's sugar imports are likely to fall by about half in the year ended September 2013 due to increased domestic production, competition from alternative sweeteners, high inventories and a slowdown in the economy. Based on the median forecast of 10 analysts surveyed, China may import 1.625 million tons of sugar in 2012/13, a significant drop from 3.34 million tons in the first 11 months of 2011/12. The figure of 3.334 million tons exceeds the international sugar industry organization's (ISO) forecast for full-year imports by 3.2 million tons." Sugar imports are not expected to be too active because the credit crunch has affected the food industry," said Zhu Xiaoyan, an analyst at Tianma Futures. Imports should be around 2 million tons, due to the difference between domestic and international markets. China's economy hasn't bottomed out yet, and food consumption is unlikely to surge," she said. Analysts had expected a minimum of 945,000 tonnes and a maximum of 2 million tonnes, with an average of 1.54 million tonnes. Falling international market prices and China's storage plan have led to strong sugar imports and rising inventories. The China Sugar Association estimates that sugar stocks had reached a record high of 4.7 million tons by the end of September. The association expects overstocking to hit a new high of 5.7 million tons by the end of the season. The survey showed that China's sugar production for the current year could rise to 13.45 million tonnes due to abundant rainfall, higher than the median forecast of 11.55 million tonnes for the year to September 2012. The median forecast of 10 analysts surveyed showed that consumption for the current crop quarter was expected to be 13.875 million tonnes, the same as the previous year. (Complete)