Supported by the continued decline in inventories, aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile

After a series of sharp declines, Lun Aluminum rebounded sharply after the overnight interest rate hike landed to close in Zhongyang, opening 0.
5% higher at $
2628 today.
Shanghai aluminum opened high and rose to close in 20025.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are down, and market sentiment is biased to wait and see
.
The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is high, and the domestic consumption side has improved
.
Shanghai aluminum Lun aluminum below the reflects a certain support, Shanghai aluminum trend is significantly stronger than Lun aluminum, Shanghai aluminum may continue to rebound
after the shock.
Upper pressure 22000, lower support 20000
.

On the macro front, the Fed raised interest rates by 75BP in the last trading day, the largest since 1994, slightly exceeding market expectations, but after the meeting, Powell said that large interest rate hikes would not be normalized, the dollar index fell back after soaring, and interest rate hike expectations in the short term may remain hawkish, and the space below the dollar is limited
.

In terms of spot, the wait-and-see mood of the receiving party in the Wuxi market gradually increased, and the overall trading situation slowed down; Gongyi market buyers bargained for bargain hunting, and the overall trading was slightly light; Foshan market buyers purchase on demand, and the market transaction is light; In the Shenyang market, the holders actively shipped, and the overall transaction was average
.

On the supply side, Yunnan Hongtai New Materials Co.
, Ltd.
has built the first phase of green electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 1.
08 million tons, and it is expected that the production capacity will reach 850,000 tons by the end of June this year, and the construction of the second phase of green electrolytic aluminum production capacity has also been further accelerated
.

In terms of inventory, according to Mysteel statistics, as of June 13, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major domestic markets was 849,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous period, of which Wuxi, Foshan and other places contributed the main decline; In June, with the improvement of the epidemic, the resumption of work and production in Shanghai has steadily advanced, the current domestic consumption tends to improve, and the amount of aluminum ingots destocked is expected to continue to expand
.
Overseas, LME stocks fell back to 423,900 mt, the lowest level
in nearly 21 years.

In general, the recovery of downstream demand after the epidemic is still the focus of market attention, the current resumption of work and production is proceeding steadily, coupled with the concentrated release of macro warming policies, the market has strong expectations for consumption recovery, but it will take time for policy implementation and full recovery of consumption; Although consumption has improved at this stage, the situation is still not optimistic in terms of the recent situation of the spot market and terminal consumption such as real estate, and the situation of strong expectations and weak reality still needs to be improved; In addition, the supply side continues to increase, which has caused a certain degree of suppression on aluminum prices, but the continuous decline in inventories supports the bottom of aluminum prices, and aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile
.