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In mid-to-late July, the average price of 98% concentrated nitric acid in the mainstream market rose strongly to a 10-year high of 3550 yuan (ton price, the same below) and then began to fall
.
As of August 18, the average price of 98% concentrated nitric acid in the mainstream market in Zhejiang was 3375 yuan, a drop of 175 yuan or 4.
"Affected by unexpected events in July, the main domestic acid plant installations were temporarily shut down, which gave strong support to the concentrated nitric acid market, especially in the southern market
.
However, due to the partial decline of raw materials and the expected increase in supply, etc.
Raw materials fall from high levels
The high level of raw material falls backEntering August, affected by factors such as the release of new production capacity and the reduction of some downstream supporting facilities, the domestic supply of liquid ammonia has increased, and the focus of market transactions has shifted downward, which weakened the support for the cost of concentrated nitric acid
.
According to statistics from Longzhong Information, after entering August, the daily increase of concentrated nitric acid in Shanxi and Henan reached 2,700 tons
.
After August 5, the Hubei maintenance company Jingmen Yingde Gas and Sinopec Hubei's synthetic ammonia plant resumed production.
“Part of the pre-maintenance companies have resumed production one after another, the supply of local markets has slowly increased, and the price of urea has fallen steadily, which will be negative for the liquid ammonia market.
The short-term liquid ammonia market may continue to fluctuate and
fall.
Affected by the mentality of buying up and not buying down, Downstream on-demand procurement is the main focus, traders are cautious, and demand is difficult to increase.
Gradually increasing supply
Gradually increase the source of goods Gradually increase the source of goods The core domestic production capacity of concentrated nitric acid is mainly concentrated in Shandong and East China
.
Among them, the production capacity of Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang accounted for nearly 60% of the total production capacity
Recently, with the effective control of the epidemic, major acid companies such as Jiangsu Dimond, Jiangsu Huaihe, and Huachang have successively unblocked and resumed work.
Coupled with the restart of the Xinxiang Yongchang plant, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market has steadily increased
.
As of August 18, the output of concentrated nitric acid of 24 domestic acid companies for external sales was approximately 33,400 tons that week, an increase of 2,800 tons from the previous week and a month-on-month increase of 9.
"At present, the domestic concentrated nitric acid market is stagnant due to limited logistics capacity.
Especially in the next few days, the supply of Hangzhou Longshan is expected to increase or curb the increase in acid prices
.
" Cui Shuang analyzed that in the future, the concentrated nitric acid market The risk of a fall will increase, but based on the support of high-priced raw materials, there will not be much room for a fall
Downstream market increase
Downstream market rises downstream market rises The main downstream of concentrated nitric acid is aniline, TDI, dye intermediates and other industries
.
The recent rise in the main downstream market has also brought certain support to the concentrated nitric acid market
Recently, the downstream aniline and TDI market has performed well, and the profit margin has increased significantly compared with the previous period
.
On August 17, the price of aniline was raised by 200 yuan, the negotiated price in the East China market was 10,800 to 10,900 yuan, and the negotiated price in the North China market was 10,900 yuan
.
The operating rate of aniline companies that source acid from external sources has increased, and the overall rigid demand is acceptable
.
Due to the shutdown of the TDI installations of Shanghai Covestro and Cangzhou Dahua, the supply of TDI supplies was tight.
On August 16, the market price of East China Shanghai goods was 14,300-15,000 yuan, an increase of 500-1,000 yuan from August 13
.
At present, TDI companies have stabilized the rhythm of raw acid procurement, or played a supporting role in supporting the high acid price
.
"At the end of July due to the epidemic, several major producers of o-nitrate and aniline, such as Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical, Jiangsu Fuqiang New Materials, and Jiangsu Ruiheng New Materials, will have restart plans at the end of August.
The demand for nitric acid is not large, so its restart will not have much impact on the entire concentrated nitric acid market
.
" Cui Shuang analyzed
.
In the short-term, the concentrated nitric acid market as a whole maintains a high operating trend.
However, as the impact of public health incidents weakens, and companies such as Hangzhou Longshan and Henan Xinxiang are expected to keep driving, the supply side has an increasing trend
.
Under the game of supply and demand, it is expected that the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid will run around 3,000 yuan in August.
In the later period, we need to pay close attention to the situation of unblocking the epidemic and the start of the factory
.
