Supply pressure is difficult to alleviate the continued weakness of pig prices

The current consumption season is peaking, but the price of pigs is not rising but falling

Falling prices slowed down the replenishment

Recently, a reporter from the China Securities Journal learned that as the consumption of the live pig market has weakened and prices have fallen, farmers' short-term pressure on stocks has eased

According to data from Zhuochuang Information, as of December 13, the average price of domestic ternary pigs for slaughter fell to 15.

Lv Pin, a pig analyst at Everbright Futures, analyzed to a reporter from China Securities News: "At present, the industry is generally pessimistic about the pig price after mid-December

The person in charge of a pig farm in the north said that the price of pigs rebounded in the early stage, and the deep loss of the company was once significantly improved, and the profit per pig reached about 200 yuan

Faced with the fall in pig prices, the downstream pig industry is facing a rapid reduction in profits

High supply pressure

From the perspective of supply and demand, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the number of reproductive sows at the end of October was 43.

“The market generally predicts that the stock of reproductive sows in November will fall by 1 million heads

Zhang Ruihao also believes that, based on the previous data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, combined with the performance of the live pig spot market in November, it is expected that the number of live pigs for slaughter in December and January 2022 will be increased again from the previous month

Weakness is difficult to change in the next six months

Under the pressure of supply and demand, many analysts predict that pig prices will remain weak in the first half of 2022

"After mid-December, the price of pigs may gradually fall.

Lu Pin predicts that the pig price will be difficult to get out of the current pig cycle before the third quarter of 2022

Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Niu Zhe told a reporter from China Securities News that from a macro perspective, the current domestic stock of reproductive sows is still slightly higher than the normal holdings, and the future trend is the slow reduction of production capacity of live pigs