Supply pressure increases and prices weaken

Introduction: This week, the international and domestic soybean market showed a narrow range of volatility trend The CBOT period price in the US market continued to consolidate horizontally below 500 cents since last week's downward breakthrough of 500 cents The week's lowest 474 cents did not break the last Thursday's 473 cents low, and the highest 489 * 2 cents The strong resistance area above 490 US cents is still untouchable The CBOT has been running for a week between the top and bottom dozen points Sorting out, although the two key support lines of breaking 500 cents and 480 cents caused a lot of damage to the bull sentiment in the field, but this week CBOT period price once again found a low long space balance area, which gave the market some breathing opportunities Before the new balance is broken, CBOT trend will still maintain a high horizontal pattern On the basis of international market fundamentals, the weather factor that has been dogging the fluctuation of soybean price in the early stage has weakened again this week There was a wide range of rainfall in the Midwest of the United States last weekend and this week However, according to the soybean growth report released on Monday, the level of soybean growth rate did not increase as expected by the market, which is still the same as that of last week The data shows that the impact of weather conditions on soybean growth has been greatly weakened, at least not as obvious as the previous situation At the end of August, soybean growth has come to an end, and the period when the weather has the greatest impact on the formation of yield has passed It can be said that the per unit yield level and total yield of soybean in the United States this year have been basically given qualitatively The market speculation on this aspect will dissipate naturally after everything is settled After the weather factors gradually withdraw from the dominant position of the market, the content of supply and demand will reappear In the later stage, CBOT market will gradually over focus on these factors For the total soybean production in the United States this year, the prevailing market view is that this year's level will still be record Everyone is paying attention to the forecast value of the output in the monthly supply and demand report of agricultural products in September Most institutions think that the output level will not be reduced too much in the September report of the Ministry of agriculture, and will remain basically at the total level of 2.87 billion bushels in August If the final figure is true, the supply volume in the international soybean market this autumn will be amazing, and the soybean category It is doubtful whether the previous high demand can offset the rapid growth of production Once the supply and demand are unbalanced again, CBOT period price will fluctuate for the third year in a row, and it will be very difficult to break through this bottom range In addition, the news about the outbreak of crowing disease again in the UK has appeared in various media since this week Because the outbreak of the epidemic may have some demand support for the feed industry, the CBOT soybean meal period price this week saw a large increase, once driving the soybean period price up However, some people pointed out that it is still unknown how much impact many of these uncertain factors will ultimately bring to the soybean meal market At the end of last year, the sharp rise of CBOT market caused by the ban of meat and bone meal in Europe was not clear at last We think we need to be cautious in dealing with this issue, and we should also think of risks when we see opportunities At the end of this week, CBOT soybean price did not continue to follow the trend of soybean meal, and the market showed considerable rationality on this issue This week, the market performance of Liandou is relatively weak, and the trading situation of the whole week is relatively light After the period price has dropped nearly 250 points, both long and short sides have entered a new balance range again This week, the highest price of S205 is 2186 yuan, and the lowest price broke through 2150 yuan to 2147 yuan, which is a new low in the near future The overall picture is still a weak pattern, but the decline of the period price has been temporarily stable At the end of the week, S205 closed at 2169 yuan, and S207 closed at 2189 yuan The total inventory was 856000 hands, slightly less than last week Spot month S109 will enter the delivery month from the beginning of next week, and its closing position on Friday has been reduced to 44000 According to people familiar with the matter, the number of firm offers applied for delivery of this product has reached 240000 tons According to this data, the current position level is smaller than the number of firm offers, so the pressure on warehouse receipts is conceivable We estimate that the price of S109 will fall after entering the delivery month, which will bring a lot of pressure to the trend of varieties in the far months Before the delisting of S109, this pressure will exist, and after the delisting of S109, the direction of the warehouse receipt received by the long end will become a new problem on the market It is estimated that the digestion of more than 100000 tons of imported soybeans among the 240000 tons of soybeans is guaranteed, and the key is the remaining domestic soybeans In the Ming Dynasty Before the delivery in May, this batch of soybeans was a heart disease of the bull market Basically, China's soybean imports in July and August have just been reported, reaching 1.83 million tons and 1.3 million tons respectively Due to factors such as the concentration of soybeans in the port and the weak domestic consumption demand, it is said that at present, the import soybeans in the main ports have begun to lag In the later stage, the domestic soybeans are newly harvested and listed, and these imported soybeans will be more difficult to sell The latest report says that the port soybean quotation has been opened recently It began to decline, but the range was not large, basically around 40 yuan / ton The detailed rules for the implementation of China's "genetically modified regulations" have not come out yet, which makes the market buying fades away gradually The relevant organizations predict that the total amount of imported soybeans in China will reach 12.5 million tons this year, a new record will be set In addition, the climate in the soybean producing areas in the previous year is normal, and the growth of domestic soybeans is good It is estimated that the total output of domestic soybeans this year will reach 15.7 million tons, and the total supply of soybeans this year is 2800 More than ten thousand tons is far higher than the demand This situation of serious oversupply will undoubtedly lower the price again As the new soybean harvest approaches, the domestic soybean market will be under more and more pressure In the later stage, soybean prices will be difficult to get out of the sharp rise market Objectively speaking, before the middle of October, soybean prices will be mainly adjusted by the market condition of fluctuating and falling The price should return to the bottom box center position of 2050 yuan in recent two years Li Xiaozhi, futures information research center, Shihua International Financial Information Co., Ltd., August 31, 2001, Tel: 010-62200475