Supply concerns pushed up oil prices

As the situation in Ukraine has intensified investors' concerns about crude oil supply, international oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel at the close of trading on the 1st
.

Light crude futures for April delivery rose $7.
69, or 8.
03%, to close at $103.
41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange by the close of the day; London Brent crude futures for May delivery rose $7, or 7.
15%,
to settle at $104.
97 a barrel.

On the 1st, light crude futures for April delivery rose as high as $106.
78 per barrel, while London Brent crude futures for May delivery reached as high as $
107.
57 per barrel.

In order to cool oil prices, the International Energy Agency, which represents the interests of oil-consuming countries, held an interim ministerial meeting on the 1st and decided to jointly release 60 million barrels of crude oil reserves, including the 30 million barrels of crude oil reserves
committed by the United States.

The IEA said that IEA members have a total of 1.
5 billion barrels of emergency crude oil reserves, and the decision releases about 4% of the total, which can last for 30 days
at 2 million barrels per day.
This is the fourth joint release of crude oil reserves
since the establishment of the International Energy Agency in 1974.

In a statement, IEA Administrator Fatih Birol said the current situation in the energy market is very serious and needs to be closely monitored, and "global energy security is under threat, putting the global economy, which is in a fragile recovery phase, at risk.
"
The statement said it would consider further releases of crude oil reserves
if necessary.

After the International Energy Agency announced the release of crude oil reserves, the rise in international oil prices narrowed only slightly
.
Market analysts believe that the joint action of the 31 members of the International Energy Agency has failed to effectively cool oil prices, mainly because the size of the release of strategic reserves is smaller than market expectations, and the impact is insufficient compared with global oil consumption and Russian crude oil production.

The scale of the actual reduction in Russian oil supply is difficult to determine, and the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also caused the market to worry that the energy supply situation has further deteriorated
.

It is estimated that the scale of crude oil reserves released by members of the International Energy Agency is equivalent to Russia's crude oil production in 6 days or crude oil exports in 12 days
.

Tom Kloza, head of global energy analysis at Oil Price Information Services, said that the combined release of 60 million barrels of crude oil reserves by IEA member countries is not enough to have a big impact, and the released crude oil can only meet 60%
of the world's oil demand in a day.

Matt Smith, an oil analyst at Keppler, a market research firm, said that given the delay between the announcement and the actual flow of crude oil into the market, the biggest impact of the IEA's release of crude oil reserves is the impact on
market sentiment.

Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Private Wealth Management, said the release could provide a modest cushion in the short term, just too small
compared to the real scale of supply disruptions in Russia.

Data show that Russia's crude oil supply accounts for about 10% of the world, and its Urals crude oil is the largest crude oil product
in the European market.

Bob McNally, president of Lapidan Energy Consulting in the United States, said that the situation in Ukraine has significantly escalated over the past weekend, pushing crude oil risk premiums higher again, and oil prices may not fall until $100 to $115 per barrel
.

Goldman Sachs Group recently raised its average price forecast for Brent crude oil futures for the next month from $95 per barrel to $115 per barrel
.