Supply and demand imbalance suppresses Shanghai rubber short-term still needs to be cautious

Analysts believe that at present, the weakness of the Shanghai rubber market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival, only after the holiday Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries into the cutting season, and then with the rubber-producing countries more powerful price support measures, and at the same time in the recovery of domestic demand jointly boosted, rubber prices can usher in a rebound
.

Shanghai rubber shrinkage sorting, temporarily supported at 12500 yuan / ton
.
The Spring Festival is approaching, downstream demand has weakened, and some tire companies have stopped working
.
In addition, crude oil prices are showing signs of peaking, and if oil prices fall deeply, it may also have a negative impact
on rubber prices.

Although the continued low rubber prices have forced rubber-producing countries to frequently introduce policies to intervene in rubber prices, the measures are not as strong as the market expects, and the current situation of oversupply is still "worried, cannot be cut off"
.
At the same time, Chinese tire companies have low willingness to stock raw rubber (12420, 10.
00, 0.
08%) before the Spring Festival, and purchase cautiously
.
In addition, since last year, the demand for rubber arbitrage has increased, resulting in a surge in imports, high social inventory, and negative factors in the rubber market
.
Before the Spring Festival, it is difficult for the rubber market to change the weak rhythm, and for the time being, we can only hope for the post-festival
.

From the perspective of the supply side, the global sky rubber market is still in the pattern of oversupply
.
According to the latest global supply and demand data released by the Association of Tianjiao Producing Countries (ANRPC), from January to December 2017, the global production of tianjiao increased from 12.
429 million tons in 2016 to 13.
282 million tons in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 6.
8%.

In 2017, global celestial rubber consumption increased by 1.
4% year-on-year, reaching 12.
904 million tons
.
In absolute terms, the global supply of tianjiao in 2017 was 378,000 tons, and in terms of growth rate, the supply growth rate was much greater than the demand growth rate
.

In order to change the situation of the continued low global rubber prices, although since the fourth quarter of last year, Southeast Asian rubber producers have successively introduced interventions to try to reverse the expectation
of oversupply in the rubber market.
However, the market is not buying this
.

Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia agreed in December to cut exports, and are expected to cut a total of 350,000 tons of sky rubber exports by the end of March this year
.
In terms of scale, 350,000 tons accounted for only 13.
5% of Thailand's total exports from January to March in the past two years, and the proportion of the three countries was less than 8%.

At the same time, in terms of implementation, in 2016, the three rubber councils issued a six-month export restriction policy, but in 2016, Thailand's export volume did not decline but rose, and the annual export volume reached 4.
51 million tons, and the export restriction policy was useless
.

For the export reduction plan in the first three months of this year, it is doubtful
whether the rubber-producing countries can fulfill it.
Even if it is 100% fulfilled, it is still unknown
whether the export volume in the next few months will "rebound" - the amount to make up for the reduction period.

From the perspective of China's demand 'engine', after entering 2018, under the background of the cancellation of purchase tax preferential policies, China's new car production and sales will enter a period of low growth in the future, and at the same time, in the face of high base constraints, it is not ruled out that there will be negative growth in individual months
.
”

Looking forward to the future market, the sharp decline in Shanghai rubber premium is conducive to the exit of the futures spot arbitrage market, which is positive for the medium and long-term prices
.
In the short term, technically the main 1805 contract of Shanghai rubber 13,000 yuan / ton lost the first line into a pressure level, in the remaining week of the year, considering the liquidity gradually tightened, Shanghai rubber will also be under pressure, but the sharp drop in premium also limits the downward space
.

At present, the weak rhythm of the Shanghai rubber market will continue, it is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival, only after the holiday Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries into the cutting season, and then with the rubber producing countries more powerful price support measures, and at the same time after the holiday China's tire procurement demand to pick up the common boost, rubber prices can usher in a rebound market
.