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In May, rubber futures prices bottomed out.
On the supply side, although the rainfall in the world's main producing areas has brought periodic stimulus, the peak season is coming, and the supply will gradually increase
.
The squeezed raw materials of whole milk by concentrated milk will also weaken
with the improvement of Hainan cutting and the epidemic.
Although the Fed's interest rate hike bearish expectations landed and macro risks were temporarily eliminated, U.
S.
bonds rebounded sharply and the continued strength of US dollar indicators still put negative pressure on global commodities, thus suppressing the continued rebound of domestic rubber futures after the holiday
.
At present, the hidden dangers of macro bearish still exist, and the tightening trend of global liquidity is obvious
.
On the demand side, global supply chain problems have seriously affected automobile production, and global automobile production and sales have declined
.
China's heavy-duty truck consumption may continue to be weak, and the performance of domestic and foreign demand is biased
.
However, there are favorable policies on the policy side, such as the introduction of the automobile downward policy and the implementation of the vehicle purchase tax halving policy, the United States may cancel some tire imports and tariffs, and rubber prices are in the relative bottom price range, providing a boost to the rebound, but the rebound height may be limited
.
At the same time, the fundamental supply and demand structure of the rubber market is weak, the supply side ushered in the rubber tapping season, the domestic Yunnan rubber production area has been fully cut, and the Hainan Tianjiao production area will be cut at the end of April and the beginning of May, and will also enter the full tapping period around mid-May, when the domestic glue production will steadily increase
.
Downstream demand is still weak due to the impact of the domestic epidemic, the consumption expectation of the terminal car market is weak, and the operating rate of the tire industry is also weaker than the same period
of previous years.
In the context of the supply and demand structure of the rubber market is still weak, coupled with the suppression of macro bearish expectations, it is expected that rubber futures will still maintain the pattern
of oscillation and bottoming in the future.
