Overview of my country's feed market in the first quarter of 2003

Introduction: Ministry of Agriculture: summary of feed market in China in the first quarter of 2003 Among feedstuffs, corn prices rose slowly, basically in line with last year's trend; soybean meal and fish meal prices fell steadily, but were higher than the same period last year's level; methionine and lysine market prices rose year on year From January to February, China's exports of corn and soybean meal were lower than the same period last year, but the export advantage still exists GNB 1 Price analysis of feed products from January to March, except that the price of compound feed for fattening pigs was slightly higher than that of the same period last year, the price of compound feed for layers and broilers were lower than that of the same period last year GNB (1) the price of compound feed for fattening pigs was stable from January to March, and the average price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 1.55 yuan / kg, maintaining a stable running trend In the first quarter of this year, the price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 0.43%, 0.43% and 6.64% higher than that in 2002, 2001 and 2000 respectively According to the price of GNB in different regions, the provinces with high price of compound feed for fattening pigs from January to March are mainly Guangdong, Hainan, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Hubei, Guizhou and other provinces Low price provinces include Qinghai, Tianjin, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Gansu, Jiangsu, Beijing and other provinces From January to March, the average price of broiler compound feed was 1.81 yuan / kg, 3.03% lower than that of the same period in 2002 (1.87 yuan / kg), 3.37% lower than that of the same period in 2001 (1.88 yuan / kg) The provinces with higher price of GNB broiler compound feed include Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Beijing, Shaanxi, Chongqing and other provinces, while the provinces with lower price include Qinghai, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Henan, Jilin, Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei and other provinces GNB (3) the price of compound feed for laying hens increased slightly from January to March The average price of compound feed for laying hens was 1.65 yuan / kg, 2.56% lower than that of the same period in 2002 (1.69 yuan / kg), slightly higher than that of the same period in 2001 (1.64 yuan / kg) From January to march of GNB, the provinces with higher price of layer compound feed include Guangxi, Hainan, Guangdong, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other provinces, while the provinces with lower price include Qinghai, Hebei, Tianjin, Henan, Shandong, Ningxia, Gansu, Jilin and other provinces GNB 2 Analysis of feed raw material price GNB (1) corn price began to rise GNB from November last year (1.04 yuan / kg), and corn price rose all the way In March this year, corn price reached 1.11 yuan / kg, up 6.73% From January to March, the average price of corn was 1.09 yuan / kg, basically the same as that of the same period in 2002, but slightly lower than that of the same period in 2001 (1.10 yuan / kg) From January to march of GNB, the provinces with higher corn prices are Hainan, Guangdong, Hubei, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Zhejiang and other provinces, and the provinces with lower prices are Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shanxi, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other provinces The main reason for GNB's recent recovery in corn prices is the increase in demand The performance is as follows: 1 The export has increased substantially, which has driven the domestic corn price up From the perspective of production areas, from January to February this year, China's export of corn reached 2.335 million tons, more than double the export volume of the same period in 2002; from the perspective of sales areas, the main reason is that the situation of the breeding industry has gradually improved, and the demand for feed has increased ② The supply in the production area is a little tight On the one hand, due to the decline of corn production in Central Plains last year, the inventory has declined significantly compared with last year; on the other hand, due to the price rise, farmers are reluctant to sell and the supply is reduced In addition, the development of corn deep processing stimulates the increase of corn consumption The price of GNB (2) soybean meal decreased slightly and tended to be stable In January March, the average price of GNB was 2.27 yuan / kg, up 11.27% year on year, slightly higher than the same period in 2001 The provinces with higher price of GNB soybean meal are Guizhou, Gansu, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other provinces, while the provinces with lower price are Qinghai, Shanghai, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Tianjin and other provinces After GNB Spring Festival, with the start of domestic oil companies, the supply of soybean meal began to increase In addition, the increase in the number of imported soybeans in Hong Kong is also an important factor affecting the price of soybean meal In the short term, soybean meal prices are still stable and declining GNB (3) the price of imported fish meal fell steadily In November last year, the price of imported fish meal began to decline slowly, from 5.61 yuan / kg to 5.50 yuan / kg in March this year, a decrease of 1.96% From January to March this year, the average price of imported fish meal was 5.54 yuan / kg, up 2.4% year on year, 10.8% higher than the same period in 2001 The main reasons for GNB's recent decline in the price of imported fish meal are as follows: first, the demand for fish meal in the domestic market is not large; second, the domestic port inventory is relatively abundant The price of GNB (IV) methionine and lysine increased year on year Since December 2002, the price of methionine (solid and liquid) in China has been rising slowly From January to March, the average prices of solid methionine and liquid methionine were 26.29 yuan / kg and 21.73 yuan / kg, respectively, up 28.98% and 28.69% year on year The price trend of lysine in GNB import and domestic is the same Since the beginning of the year, the price of lysine in China has declined in a straight line From January to March this year, the average prices of imported and domestic lysine were 20.8 yuan / kg and 20.24 yuan / kg, respectively, up 24.87% and 23.81% year on year GNB (1) import and export of corn in feed raw materials import and export trade in March and January February From January to February, about 93 tons of corn were imported from the United States, a year-on-year decrease of 89% From January to February, GNB exported 2.336 million tons of corn, an increase of 133.47% year on year Among them, 1.097 million tons were exported to South Korea, a year-on-year increase of 88.94%; about 300000 tons were exported to Malaysia, a year-on-year increase of 4.37%; and 206000 tons were exported to Indonesia, a year-on-year increase of 592.34% In addition, it exports 164000 tons to Iran and 87000 tons to Japan Since the beginning of the year of GNB, China's and Argentina's corn exports have maintained a strong momentum, increasing the supply of corn in the international market, putting pressure on the United States, the world's largest corn exporter The Chicago corn futures and the U At present, the supply of corn in the international market mainly comes from the United States, China and Argentina The price of corn in China and Argentina is lower than that in the United States The export competition of corn from China and Argentina will make the FOB price of corn in the United States fall, and affect the export share of corn in the United States, so as to promote the change of the world corn import and export pattern GNB (2) import and export of soybean meal in January February China exported 86000 tons of soybean meal, a decrease of 51.51% over the same period last year, of which 55000 tons were exported to Japan, a decrease of 54.05% over the same period last year; 17500 tons were exported to South Korea, a year-on-year increase of 119.13%; 8800 tons were exported to Malaysia, a decrease of 69.30% over the same period last year; 1700 tons were exported to North Korea, a year-on-year increase of 46.85% No soybean meal was imported from January to February this year GNB from the international market, since 1998 / 1999, the world soybean meal production has increased from 107.3 million tons to the forecast value of 131.8 million tons in 2002 / 2003, an increase of 23% In the world soybean meal production, the share of the United States has decreased, and the share of Latin America and Asia has increased GNB soybean meal exports to Southeast Asian countries, mainly including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and North Korea Compared with South America, China's soybean meal has the advantages of low processing cost, short transportation distance, fresh soybean meal and low transportation cost In addition, the country adopts positive encouraging policies The international and domestic situation is favorable for China's soybean meal export From January to February, China imported 28300 tons of fish meal for feed, a year-on-year decrease of 64.64% Among them, imports from Chile, Peru, the United States and Russia decreased by 43.14%, 83.48%, 59.34% and 58.90% respectively year on year Imports from New Zealand increased by 31.45% year on year GNB exports 339.63 tons of fish meal from January to February this year, up 1.99% year on year, of which 176 tons were exported in January, up 161.52% year on year; 163.63 tons were exported in February, down 38.42% year on year Exports to Vietnam, Sri Lanka, North Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Japan GNB, according to the US agriculture counsellor, is expected to export 1.77 million tons of Peru's fish meal in 2003 China is the main importer, followed by Japan, Germany, Taiwan and Russia As a whole, Asia is still the main market for Peruvian fish meal, accounting for 65% of its exports GNB 4 Outlook for the second quarter of 2003 GNB (1) corn GNB from the domestic market, corn will continue to maintain an upward trend At present, the situation of supply exceeding demand in China's corn market has been eased, which is conducive to the recovery of China's corn price The export of corn will remain at a high level, especially to Southeast Asian countries, which not only has the advantage of land, but also has a competitive advantage in price From the perspective of international market, GNB's global corn output decreased in 2002 / 03, consumption was basically the same as that of last year, and the output was lower than the demand The global corn ending inventory will decline, which will form a favorable support for the price In addition, the change of international situation will bring new distribution pattern to the world corn market GNB (2) in the short term, domestic soybean meal prices will continue to rise, but will stabilize soon Soybean meal prices are expected to decline with the arrival of imported soybeans, especially Brazil soybeans in April May Although the export of GNB soybean meal has been supported by the policy to a large extent, the price advantage of China's soybean meal export is not obvious because the domestic soybean meal price is higher than the international market price In a sense, if the relatively high domestic soybean meal price drops to a certain level, it will have a greater stimulating effect on soybean meal export, and it will also help to alleviate the impact and pressure of a large number of imported soybeans on the domestic market GNB (3) the price of imported fish meal will rise in the near future In recent years, due to the rapid development of aquaculture, the domestic demand for fresh water fish has increased In addition, the production of Peru, the main exporting country of fish meal, has declined significantly, and the supply of imported fish meal in the domestic market has decreased, which has increased the price of imported fish meal But if Peru is rich in fish in the later period, the price will inevitably decline The domestic methionine price of GNB (IV) methionine GNB will continue to decline slowly Since this year, the domestic chicken and egg prices have been low, the enthusiasm of farmers is not high, and the amount of poultry raised has been greatly reduced, which has affected the production of poultry feed and the demand for methionine GNB (V) lysine the price of GNB lysine will continue to fall, but the decline trend will obviously slow down Main reasons: ① at present, the supply of lysine in China exceeds the demand The production capacity of domestic lysine plants has increased, and new lysine plants have been put into operation In addition, the import quantity of lysine