Summary of my country's feed market in the first quarter of 2003

Introduction: in the first quarter of new page 1, except for the compound feed for fattening pigs, the price of compound feed for layers and broilers was lower than that of the same period last year Among feedstuffs, corn prices rose slowly, basically in line with last year's trend; soybean meal and fish meal prices fell steadily, but were higher than the same period last year's level; methionine and lysine market prices rose year on year From January to February, China's corn and soybean meal exports are lower than the same period last year, but the export advantage still exists Qb8 1 Price analysis of feed products qb8 1-March, except that the price of compound feed for fattening pigs was slightly higher than that of the same period last year, the prices of compound feed for layers and broilers were lower than that of the same period last year Qb8 (1) the price of compound feed for fattening pigs was stable from January to March, and the average price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 1.55 yuan / kg, maintaining a stable running trend In the first quarter of this year, the price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 0.43%, 0.43% and 6.64% higher than that in 2002, 2001 and 2000 respectively Qb8 from the price point of view of each region, from January to March, finishing pig compound feed has been kept at a high price in Guangdong, Hainan, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Hubei, Guizhou and other provinces Low price provinces include Qinghai, Tianjin, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Gansu, Jiangsu, Beijing and other provinces Qb8 (2) the price of broiler compound feed fluctuated slightly from January to March The average price of broiler compound feed was 1.81 yuan / kg, 3.03% lower than that of the same period in 2002 (1.87 yuan / kg), 3.37% lower than that of the same period in 2001 (1.88 yuan / kg) The price of qb8 broiler compound feed is higher in Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Beijing, Shaanxi, Chongqing and other provinces, and lower in Qinghai, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Henan, Jilin, Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei and other provinces Qb8 (3) the price of compound feed for laying hens increased slightly from January to March The average price of compound feed for laying hens was 1.65 yuan / kg, 2.56% lower than that in the same period of 2002 (1.69 yuan / kg), slightly higher than that in the same period of 2001 (1.64 yuan / kg) From January to march of qb8, the provinces with higher price of layer compound feed include Guangxi, Hainan, Guangdong, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other provinces, and the provinces with lower price include Qinghai, Hebei, Tianjin, Henan, Shandong, Ningxia, Gansu, Jilin and other provinces Qb8 2 Analysis of feed raw material price qb8 (1) corn price began to rise qb8 from November last year (1.04 yuan / kg), corn price rose all the way, in March this year, corn price reached 1.11 yuan / kg, up 6.73% From January to March, the average price of corn was 1.09 yuan / kg, basically the same as that of the same period in 2002, but slightly lower than that of the same period in 2001 (1.10 yuan / kg) From January to march of qb8, the provinces with higher corn prices are Hainan, Guangdong, Hubei, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Zhejiang and other provinces, and the provinces with lower prices are Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shanxi, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other provinces The main reason for the recent recovery of corn price in qb8 is the increase of demand The performance is as follows: 1 The export has increased substantially, which has driven the domestic corn price up From the perspective of production areas, from January to February this year, China's export of corn reached 2.335 million tons, more than double the export volume of the same period in 2002; from the perspective of sales areas, the main reason is that the situation of aquaculture is gradually improving, and the demand for feed is increasing ② The supply in the production area is a little tight On the one hand, due to the decline of corn production in Central Plains last year, the inventory has declined significantly compared with last year; on the other hand, due to the price rise, farmers are reluctant to sell and the supply is reduced In addition, the development of corn deep processing stimulates the increase of corn consumption The price of qb8 (2) soybean meal decreased slightly and tended to be stable The average price of qb8 soybean meal from January to march was 2.27 yuan / kg, up 11.27% year on year, slightly higher than the same period in 2001 Qb8 soybean meal prices are higher in Guizhou, Gansu, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other provinces, and lower in Qinghai, Shanghai, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Tianjin and other provinces After the Spring Festival of qb8, with the start-up of domestic oil companies, the supply of soybean meal in the market began to increase In addition, the increase in the number of imported soybeans in Hong Kong is also an important factor affecting the price of soybean meal In the short term, soybean meal prices are still stable and declining Qb8 (3) the price of imported fish meal fell steadily qb8 the price of imported fish meal began to slow down in November last year, from 5.61 yuan / kg to 5.50 yuan / kg in March this year, a decrease of 1.96% From January to March this year, the average price of imported fish meal was 5.54 yuan / kg, up 2.4% year on year, 10.8% higher than the same period in 2001 Qb8 recently led to the decline in the price of imported fish meal mainly due to the following factors: first, the demand for fish meal in the domestic market is not large; second, the domestic port inventory is relatively abundant The price of qb8 (IV) methionine and lysine increased year on year Since December 2002, the price of methionine (solid and liquid) in China has been rising slowly From January to March, the average prices of solid methionine and liquid methionine were 26.29 yuan / kg and 21.73 yuan / kg, respectively, up 28.98% and 28.69% year on year The price trend of imported and domestic lysine of qb8 is the same Since the beginning of the year, the price of lysine in China has declined in a straight line From January to March this year, the average prices of imported lysine and domestic lysine were 20.8 yuan / kg and 20.24 yuan / kg, respectively, up 24.87% and 23.81% year on year Qb8 import and export of feed raw materials in March and January February qb8 (I) import and export of corn From January to February, about 93 tons of corn were imported from the United States, a year-on-year decrease of 89% From January to February of qb8, China exported 2.336 million tons of corn, an increase of 133.47% year on year Among them, 1.097 million tons were exported to South Korea, a year-on-year increase of 88.94%; about 300000 tons were exported to Malaysia, a year-on-year increase of 4.37%; and 206000 tons were exported to Indonesia, a year-on-year increase of 592.34% In addition, it exports 164000 tons to Iran and 87000 tons to Japan Since the beginning of the year of qb8, China's and Argentina's corn exports have maintained a strong momentum, increasing the supply of corn in the international market, putting pressure on the United States, the world's largest corn exporter The Chicago corn futures and the U.S Gulf of Mexico FOB prices have fallen for half a year in a row, hitting a new low At present, the supply of corn in the international market mainly comes from the United States, China and Argentina The price of corn in China and Argentina is lower than that in the United States The export competition of corn from China and Argentina will make the FOB price of corn in the United States fall, and affect the export share of corn in the United States, so as to promote the change of the world corn import and export pattern Qb8 (2) import and export of soybean meal qb8 from January to February, China's cumulative export of soybean meal was 86000 tons, down 51.51% from the same period last year, of which 55000 tons were exported to Japan, down 54.05% year on year; 17500 tons were exported to South Korea, up 119.13% year on year; 8800 tons were exported to Malaysia, down 69.30% year on year; 1700 tons were exported to North Korea, up 46.85% year on year No soybean meal was imported from January to February this year Qb8 from the perspective of international market, since 1998 / 1999, the world soybean meal production has increased from 107.3 million tons to 131.8 million tons in 2002 / 2003, an increase of 23% In the world soybean meal production, the share of the United States has decreased, and that of Latin America and Asia has increased Qb8 China's soybean meal exports are basically to Southeast Asian countries, mainly including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and North Korea Compared with South America, China's soybean meal has the advantages of low processing cost, short transportation distance, fresh soybean meal and low transportation cost In addition, the country adopts positive encouraging policies The international and domestic situation is favorable for China's soybean meal export Qb8 (3) fish meal import from January to February, China imported 28300 tons of fish meal for feed, a year-on-year decrease of 64.64% Among them, imports from Chile, Peru, the United States and Russia decreased by 43.14%, 83.48%, 59.34% and 58.90% respectively year on year Imports from New Zealand increased by 31.45% year on year Qb8 from January to February this year, China exported 339.63 tons of fish meal, an increase of 1.99% year on year, of which 176 tons were exported in January, an increase of 161.52% year on year; 163.63 tons were exported in February, a decrease of 38.42% year on year Exports to Vietnam, Sri Lanka, North Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Japan Qb8 according to the report of American agricultural counsellor, it is estimated that the export volume of Peru's fish meal in 2003 will be 1.77 million tons China is the main importer, followed by Japan, Germany, Taiwan and Russia As a whole, Asia is still the main market for Peruvian fish meal, accounting for 65% of its exports Qb8 4 Outlook for the second quarter of 2003 qb8 (1) corn qb8 from the perspective of domestic market, corn will continue to maintain an upward trend At present, the situation of supply exceeding demand in China's corn market has been eased, which is conducive to the recovery of China's corn price The export of corn will remain at a high level, especially to Southeast Asian countries, which not only has the advantage of land, but also has a competitive advantage in price Qb8 from the perspective of the international market, due to the reduction of global corn production in 2002 / 03, the consumption was basically the same as that in the previous year, and the output was lower than the demand, the global corn ending inventory will decline, which will form a favorable support for the price In addition, the change of international situation will bring new distribution pattern to the world corn market Qb8 (2) in the short term, domestic soybean meal prices will continue to rise, but will stabilize soon Soybean meal prices are expected to decline with the arrival of imported soybeans, especially Brazil soybeans in April May Although the export of qb8 soybean meal is supported by the policy to a great extent, the price advantage of Chinese soybean meal export is not obvious because the price of domestic soybean meal is higher than that of international market In a sense, if the relatively high domestic soybean meal price drops to a certain level, it will have a greater stimulating effect on soybean meal export, and it will also help to alleviate the impact and pressure of a large number of imported soybeans on the domestic market Qb8 (3) the price of imported fishmeal qb8 will rise in the near future In recent years, due to the rapid development of aquaculture, the domestic demand for fresh water fish has increased In addition, the production of Peru, the main exporting country of fish meal, has declined significantly, and the supply of imported fish meal in the domestic market has decreased, which has increased the price of imported fish meal But if Peru is rich in fish in the later period, the price will inevitably decline The price of methionine in qb8 (IV) methionine qb8 will continue to decline slowly Since this year, the domestic chicken and egg prices have been low, the enthusiasm of farmers is not high, and the amount of poultry raised has been greatly reduced, which has affected the production of poultry feed and the demand for methionine Qb8 (V) lysine qb8 lysine price will continue to fall, but the decline trend will obviously slow down Main reasons: ① at present, the supply of lysine in China exceeds the demand The production capacity of domestic lysine plants has increased, and new lysine plants have been put into operation In addition, the import quantity of lysine did not decrease; ② the domestic demand for lysine was relatively weak, and the amount of amino acid needed for feed production was reduced; ③ the international market price of lysine was overall weak, and the domestic price of lysine was relatively low