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Recently, a number of institutions have made a special outlook on the global chemical demand in 2021 after the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and discussed some key issues in the chemical industry in 2021 and beyond
.
Economic recovery provides impetus
Economic recovery provides impetusIHS Markit forecast last month that global GDP growth will reach 4.
5% in 2021, which will provide a catalyst for a recovery in chemicals demand
.
Johnson said that there will be some differences in the full recovery due to the different timing of the start of economic recovery in different regions
.
Chemical production resumes growth
Chemical production resumes growthThe American Chemical Industry Council (ACC) estimates that global chemical production is expected to rebound by 3.
9% in 2021 after suffering the largest decline of 2.
6% in 40 years in 2020
.
ACC said performance varied across regions, with Latin American chemical production down 7.
2%, North America down 3.
9%, Europe down 2.
2% and Asia Pacific overall down 2.
1%
.
ACC said that after 2021, global chemical production will continue to grow, and global chemical production is expected to grow by 2.
6% and 2.
3% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, and by 2030, global chemical production will increase by 2.
1% annually
.
The industry is also cautiously optimistic about chemical production growth
.
Prospects for the U.
S.
chemical industry
S.
chemical industry
Martha Moore, senior director of policy analysis and economics at ACC, said that despite the sharp decline in the U.
S.
chemicals market, U.
S.
demand is gradually recovering
.
The latest Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) released by the ACC showed that the U.
S.
CAB composite index rose for the seventh consecutive month in November
.
Moving into 2021 CAB data will be consistent with a continued economic recovery
.
ACC expects U.
S.
economic growth to rebound by 3.
7% in 2021, driven primarily by growth in consumer spending, with industrial production rising by 3.
7% and growth in nearly all industries, including automotive, aerospace, appliances, steel, oil refining, plastics and Rubber products and other industries rose sharply
.
"The post-pandemic outlook will be supported by solid fundamentals, with demand for chemicals growing across the board," Moore said.
"
Continued customer demand growth, stable export markets, and competitive advantage with domestic U.
S.
shale gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) supplies, will help drive growth in demand for chemicals across the board," Moore said.
All are factors in the continued rise of the U.
S.
chemical industry
.
”
U.
S.
demand for basic chemicals fell by 1.
3% in 2020, and U.
S.
plastic resins maintained positive growth by 0.
9%, driven by continued growth in plastic resins
.
In 2021, basic chemicals in the United States will show a rebound trend, with an expected growth of 5.
0%, and plastic resins will increase by 6.
9%
.
U.
S.
specialty chemicals production fell 10.
8% in 2020, primarily due to the negative impact of shutdowns in the oilfield chemicals, rubber processing, foundry chemicals, and ink industries
.
U.
S.
specialty chemicals production is forecast to grow 2.
4% in 2021 as demand recovers for rubber processing, antioxidants, plastic compounds, catalysts, plastic additives, and lubricant additives
.
Because the United States has unique advantages in energy and raw materials, the United States will remain the preferred destination for chemical investment
.
ACC estimates that between 2010 and 2019, U.
S.
base olefin capacity increased by nearly 40%
.
Over the next 10 years, U.
S.
base olefin capacity will grow by another 20%
.
As of the end of November 2020, about 345 new chemical production projects have been announced, with a total investment of over US$207 billion
.
While capital spending growth will slow from the boom years of the 2010s, the ACC still forecasts that the average annual growth rate of capital spending in the U.
S.
chemical industry from 2021 to 2025 will still exceed 4%
.
