"Stabilization" has become the new normal in the property market, driving the development of the downstream home furnishing industry

A few days ago, the Financial Strategy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the "Monthly Analysis Report on China's Housing Market Development (June 2019)" and "The 17th Report on China's Urban Competitiveness", which analyzed the current development and operation of China's real estate market.
Relevant data shows that the current overall stabilization of China's property market is more obvious, and the structural differentiation is further intensified.
Among them, housing prices in first-tier cities remained generally stable, housing prices in quasi-first- and second-tier cities continued to rise, and housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities continued to decline.
Analysts pointed out that as the concept of "a house is for living, not for speculation" is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people and changes in the development mode of various regions, more rational and stable has become the new normal in the property market.
Overall stability and differentiation intensify Thelatest data show that the current Chinese real estate market still maintains an overall stable trend.
According to Liu Jianwei, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, localities continued to implement the long-term control mechanism of one city, one policy, city-specific policies, and the main responsibility of the city government, and the real estate market continued to remain stable.
Preliminary estimates show that the sales price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 4 first-tier cities increased by 0.
3% month-on-month, and the increase rate dropped by 0.
3 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price of newly built commercial housing in 31 second-tier cities increased by 0.
8% month-on-month, the same rate as last month; the sales price of second-hand housing rose by 0.
5%, and the rate of increase was 0.
1 percentage point lower than the previous month.
At the same time, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 0.
8% month-on-month, with a slight increase; the sales price of second-hand housing rose by 0.
6%, the same increase as the previous month.
  In response to the differentiation of the real estate market in different types of cities, the "Monthly Analysis Report on China's Housing Market Development" issued by the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that compared with third- and fourth-tier cities, quasi-first- and second-tier cities have stronger housing demand growth potential; Compared with first-tier cities, quasi-first-tier and second-tier cities have relatively weak real estate market regulation measures.
This has led to the relatively easy rise in the real estate market in quasi-first-tier and second-tier cities.
Once housing prices pick up, the duration of housing price increases will be longer than in other cities.
The report believes that compared with first- and second-tier cities, the momentum of continued rise in housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities is insufficient, and the government’s market adjustment measures are also more limited.
Insufficient demand has entered a falling stage.
  He Vinda, head of the Department of Economics and Trade of the University of Science and Technology Beijing, said in an interview with our reporter that the overall performance of the Chinese property market has been relatively stable since the beginning of this year.
On the one hand, after more than 20 years of rapid development, the cumulative increase in housing prices in many areas has been relatively high.
On the one hand, while adhering to strict real estate control policies, local governments have increased the supply of affordable housing and the support of the long-term rental market.
"For example, the purchase restriction policy links home purchase qualifications with local working years to ensure that people who work and live locally for a long time can give priority to satisfying the needs of self-occupation.
" He Weida said.
  Persisting in returning to residential properties, the   property market is stabilizing, which also means that its interaction with the real economy is becoming more benign.
The "17th Report on China's Urban Competitiveness" pointed out that at present, the spillover of the central city area brings hope to the development of larger urban areas, and the urban form of spatial diffusion is driving the prosperity of larger areas.
At the same time, the report also pointed out that real estate has both a positive pulling effect and a negative crowding out effect on economic growth.
When the housing price level is low, the positive pulling effect of real estate on economic growth exceeds the negative crowding out effect.
When the housing price level is too high, the negative crowding out effect will exceed the positive pulling effect.
In 2018, the net contribution of China's real estate to the economy turned from positive to negative.
  Not long ago, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, pointed out at the 11th Lujiazui Forum that in recent years, the household sector leverage ratio in some Chinese cities has risen rapidly, and a considerable proportion of household debt ratios have reached unsustainable levels.
Guo Shuqing emphasized that excessive financing in the real estate industry will not only squeeze the credit resources of other industries, but also easily encourage speculation in real estate investment and make the bubble problem worse.
  "When you buy a house to live by yourself, it means that you have an equal amount of market rental income every month, and at the same time there is an equal amount of consumer expenditure, which also means that your house produces an equal amount of added value; if you buy again A house for rent also has income and output; but when you buy a house only for investment or speculation, and not for rent, it is a pile of idle cement, steel and bricks.
" Guo Shuqing said.
  He Weida believes that the real estate market's pulling effect on the real economy must be viewed dialectically from a development perspective.
“Objectively, the upstream of the real estate industry is connected with industries such as steel, cement, and construction machinery, while the midstream involves industries such as design, sales, and finance, and the downstream affects the fields of home appliances, decoration, and furniture.
The development of real estate has played a very leading role.
Nowadays, the marginal effect is diminishing.
Therefore, only by insisting on returning to the attributes of residence, avoiding excessive speculation, and insisting on healthy development, can real estate continue to maintain a positive pull on the real economy instead of a negative crowding Out.
" He Weida said.
  "One city, one policy" will continue.
  As the property market itself continues to stabilize, there are more and more rational voices in the market.
  The Shell Research Institute released the "2019 China Real Estate Semi-Annual Report" showing that in the second quarter, the number of new customers and customers in key cities did not show a significant decline, but this force could not support a substantial increase in housing prices.
At present, key cities are markets dominated by improved demand.
Under the policy of housing recognition and loan subscription, the leverage of housing exchange demand has been greatly reduced, and there is no substantial upward momentum.
"Stability" is the theme of the second half of the year and is also the norm in the market.
"From the actual situation, policies remain highly sensitive to the market.
Where there are changes in the market, there are potential policies.
In the context of overall policy stability,'one city, one policy' is also the policy tone for the second half of the year and beyond.
"Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said.
  Relevant scholars of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believe that with the advancement of the strategy of "one city, one policy" and "policy by city", the main responsibility of local governments to stabilize housing prices will be further implemented.
Second-tier cities will follow the first-tier cities to establish a more complete market regulation mechanism, and strict control of housing prices may become the norm.
It is expected that compared with the first half of 2019, real estate financing will be moderately tightened in the second half of the year to avoid excessive expansion of real estate credit and pushing up housing prices.
The moderate tightening of real estate financing is conducive to the cooling of the real estate market in hot cities.
  He Weida predicts that in the future, the real estate market will be more stable and rational as a whole, and the degree of differentiation will also be higher.
"At present, first-tier cities are under heavy population pressure, and housing supply and demand will remain tight for a long time; some second-tier cities are influx of more young people due to the rapid development speed, thereby forming an incremental demand for the property market.
In contrast, In some third- and fourth-tier cities, the real estate market in the early stage is more driven by funds.
Therefore, if the population attractiveness is difficult to keep up in the future, and houses are difficult to effectively rent, the local property market will also be sluggish.
"