Specialty stores and offline supermarkets have become the main channels Branded baked goods are favored by consumers

Reporter Bao Xiaotie

A few days ago, iMedia Consulting, a third-party data mining and analysis agency for the global new economy industry, released a research report
on the current situation and trend of China's baked goods industry in 2023.

The report pointed out that the market size of China's baked goods industry will reach 285.
3 billion yuan in 2022, and with the growth of per capita consumption level and the adjustment of catering consumption structure, the market is expected to further expand, and the market size is expected to reach 351.
8 billion yuan
in 2025.
Survey data shows that young and middle-aged people have become the main buyers of baked goods, accounting for nearly ninety percent
.
In terms of purchase options, specialty stores and offline supermarkets have become the main purchase channels
.
In addition, branded baked goods are more popular with consumers and become the first choice
for purchase.
Driven by diversified consumer demand, brand enterprises continue to strengthen technology investment and broaden sales channels
.
With the breakthrough of new technology, frozen baking has gradually penetrated into supermarkets and convenience stores
with its advantages of low cost, large-scale production, fresher and safer products.
Women are the main buyers of baked goods, accounting for about 60.
1%.

In terms of age groups, users aged 22-40 accounted for 88.
1%
of consumption.
In addition, users in first- and second-tier cities account for more than 70%, and the number of customers in East China is large
.

The report also emphasizes that bakery products are becoming more diversified and healthy, and the frozen baking market has broad prospects and has become the main trend
of baking development.
With the improvement of residents' living standards, consumers' demand for baked goods is more diversified, healthy and interesting baked goods can be more favored by consumers, and the selection of raw materials will be more natural and healthy, low fat and low sugar
.
In terms of production, cold chain baking technology has optimized and improved the traditional baking production mode, and has gradually penetrated into supermarkets and convenience stores
.

The report analyzes the current situation and development trend
of China's baked goods industry from multiple angles and levels.

First of all, consumption growth and technological development are important drivers for the development of the baked goods industry
.
In terms of consumption growth, the average consumption of baked goods in Chinese in 2021 was 7.
7 kg, and the market demand has increased
.
iMedia consulting analysts believe that with the acceleration of China's consumption upgrading process, people will pay more attention to the consumption of quality of life, and the per capita consumption of China's baked goods industry is expected to continue to rise
.
In terms of technological development, in recent years, on the basis of integrating the advantages of ready-made products, cold chain baking technology has reduced the post-processing process of the bakery, reduced the cost of manpower and rent in the bakery, and its standardized production process is conducive to ensuring food safety and quality, so as to effectively coordinate the supply of inventory, and can solve the pain points
of traditional manual bakery operation.
iMedia consulting analysts believe that cold chain baking technology can help store expansion and avoid overproduction
.

Secondly, from the perspective of the development of China's baked food industry chain, the upstream and downstream of China's baked food industry have formed a closed loop of value exchange, with upstream exporting products to downstream and downstream feedback market demand
.
The upstream of the baking industry chain provides raw materials for enterprises to help them control the quality and cost
of raw materials.
Midstream baked goods production entities include bakeries and central factories, which can mass-produce baked products or semi-finished products, while bakeries belong to the handicraft workshops of the front shop and the back factory, and the production and sales are completed
in the store.
Downstream are all kinds of sales terminals, including bakeries, shopping malls, supermarkets, restaurants, convenience stores, etc.
, to sell finished products directly to consumers
.

The upstream products of the bakery industry chain mainly include finished sugar, dairy products, baking flour and fat
.
Data show that China's refined sugar production fluctuated from 2012 to 2021, but basically remained at about
14 million tons.
In the first 11 months of 2022, China's finished sugar production reached 11.
788 million tons, an increase of 0.
5%
year-on-year.
iMedia Consulting analysts believe that although finished sugar is the main raw material of baked goods, the baking goods industry has seen a trend
of using sugar substitutes such as xylitol.
The increase in the use of other sweeteners in the future may reduce the dependence of the baked goods industry on traditional sugars
.

From 2018 to 2021, China's dairy production showed a steady growth trend, and the growth rate has accelerated
.
China's dairy production in the first 11 months of 2022 reached 28.
489 million mt, up 2.
8%
from the same period in 2021.
iMedia Consulting analysts believe that the increase in demand for dairy products in the baked goods industry will further boost China's dairy product production
.

In 2022, China's consumption of baking flour was 5.
610 million tons, and the consumption of baking oil and fat was 1.
643 million tons
.
Baking oil is based on vegetable oil and animal oil, prepared through a series of processes, which can be used to make baked goods oil products, such as shortening, margarine, butter, etc
.
iMedia consulting analysts believe that as the scale of the baked goods market continues to expand, the demand for baking flour and baking oil will continue to grow
.

Sales channels are the downstream of China's baked food industry chain, bakery industry sales channels are divided into online and offline, offline channels are divided into special channels and other channels, bakeries include chain bakeries and single bakeries, mainly selling ready-made, short-term products; Other offline channels are divided into convenience stores, small and medium-sized supermarkets, hypermarkets, etc.
, mainly selling medium and long-term bakery products
.
iMedia consulting analysts believe that convenience stores and online channels are closer to the buying habits of young consumer groups, and the proportion of sales will increase
.

Third, the report analyzes
consumer behavior in China's baked goods industry.
According to the survey data, 93.
2% of consumers buy baked goods at least once a week, of which 6.
6%
buy baked goods every day.
Compared with 2021, the proportion of consumers who buy 4-6 times a week has increased
.
In terms of price, consumers accounted for the highest proportion of 20-40 yuan per purchase, reaching 38.
6%.

Compared with 2021, the proportion of a single consumption of 40-60 yuan increased the most
.
iMedia consulting analysts believe that consumers have formed the habit of consuming baked goods every week, and most consumers have a single consumption amount of more than 10 yuan, and more consumers are willing to accept a single high consumption of 40 yuan and above, and the change of consumer consumption habits will help the further development of
the baked goods market.

From the analysis of consumers' main consumption scenarios, 67.
1% of consumers use baked goods as snacks, and hunger and meal replacement are also the main consumption scenarios of baked goods, both reaching more than
50%.
iMedia consulting analysts believe that nowadays, the trend of snacking and eating baked goods is obvious, baked goods are not limited to a single holiday scene, their consumption scenes in life are increasingly rich, and gift giving has gradually become one of the important consumption scenarios of
baked goods.

According to the survey data of consumer taste preference, consumers choose more than 50% of cheese flavor and fruit flavor when buying baked goods, and about 40% choose milk, honey flavor and cream flavor
.
iMedia consulting analysts believe that consumers' preferences for baked goods are more diverse, and companies can adjust product tastes or carry out taste innovation to meet the diversified taste needs
of consumers.

Consumer brand sensitivity survey data shows that 92.
7% of consumers are more inclined to buy branded baked goods, 81% of consumers have obvious preference for some brands, of which 11.
5% of the interviewed consumers said that they only buy products of one brand
.
iMedia consulting analysts believe that although there is still room for improvement in consumers' loyalty to a single brand, most consumers will choose brands with higher visibility and better quality
.

The overall analysis of the report believes that the development trend of China's baked goods industry in 2023 shows that with the improvement of purchasing power, consumers' baked consumption shows a steady growth trend, and there is still room for growth in the average consumption of baked goods in Chinese, and the Chinese baked goods market will continue to expand
in the future.
Driven by the upgrading of consumer demand for baked goods, products are showing a trend of diversification, and brands also need to carry out innovative marketing activities in terms of improving product appearance, production materials, product packaging, etc.
, to meet the needs
of consumers from various aspects.
In terms of production, the frozen baking industry has a large market space, which has become a blue ocean market
for China's baked goods industry.
At present, the competition in China's baked food industry is intensifying year by year, the speed of brand update and iteration is relatively fast, and the industry is constantly reshuffling, and each bakery brand needs to keep up with the pace of market innovation and update its operation model
in a timely manner.

China Food News (2023.
01.
16.
05).