Soybean rebounds seasonally

Introduction: after March, the psychology of traders in the soybean market in the United States often changes subtly, not because of the different days, but because in recent years, the grain price in March is often stronger than that in February This year, it still looks like that Since March, the trend of soybean has been very strong If you look back, since February 1, when soybean bottomed, the futures price is in the rising stage In February, CBOT rose 12 cents in July This year's rebound is earlier than normal, but still within the range of the past 22 years Soybean prices rebounded by an average of 19 cents after March 1 In the past 10 years, the rebound from absolute lows has reached 50 cents In the spring of 1997, the rebound was as high as $1.66, but in two years, the rebound was only 5 cents and 14 cents, respectively As of Thursday, soybeans had rebounded 20 cents in July In addition, the average time to rebound from an absolute low is 44 days For this year, if you start on February 1, the average rebound will last until March 15 In most years, one of the main characteristics of the rebound is that the time of the strongest rebound often occurs in the first three weeks of March Last year's rally lasted only three weeks As far as I'm concerned, this year's soybean rebound should be longer At present, no one in the market expects the soybean area of the United States to increase in 2002 On the contrary, most people expect the soybean area to decrease slightly If the market continues to hold such a view, and the dispute over soybean trade between the United States and China is resolved, then perhaps soybean prices will rise even more and for a longer time But at the same time, we should not forget the huge output of South American soybeans The U.S Department of agriculture has just forecast Brazil's soybean production to increase by 1 million tons to a record 43.5 million tons, due to the increased planting area With the start of South American soybean market, the market will undoubtedly face the pressure of huge supply of South American soybean However, it is too early to talk about soybean pressure in South America Combined with the above factors, there is still room for us soybean prices to rise.