Soybean prices in domestic ports declined steadily

Introduction: As the detailed rules of genetically modified regulations are about to be implemented, domestic businesses are very optimistic about the price trend of soybeans, but in the long run, the impact of this policy is short-term, because after China's accession to the WTO, the pressure of international trade rules does not allow the long-term existence of technical barriers, so in the long run, due to the continuous increase of the main production of soybeans, the international soybean price is low, and the domestic market is large Bean market situation is also not optimistic Due to the coming of the "detailed rules for the implementation of genetically modified regulations", there are different opinions on the soybean market in the near future At present, domestic soybean prices continue to maintain a high enthusiasm for rising, while port prices generally show a steady downward trend In recent years, foreign genetically modified soybeans have impacted the domestic soybean market and affected the domestic soybean production to a certain extent But on the other hand, the domestic soybean protein content is high, it is a safe non transgenic soybean variety, which has the incomparable advantage of the imported soybean With the increasing demand for high protein and traditional soybeans in the international market, domestic soybeans are still lack of competitiveness in the international market due to various reasons, such as uneven quality, high cost of acquisition, sorting and transportation, and insufficient variety advantages In recent years, due to the continuous growth of domestic crushing and feed demand, the soybean imports in 2000 and 2001 reached 10.41 million tons and 13.94 million tons respectively, close to the domestic soybean production scale, with a large market circulation, and the demand of domestic enterprises for imported soybeans is very strong But from the current market situation, the domestic soybean market situation will change in the later period First, the application time of genetically modified soybeans has changed On March 4, the State Planning Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture said informally that after the implementation of the detailed rules of the genetically modified regulations, the information about the import safety certificate controlled within 30 days from application to release does exist and will be confirmed soon Second, China and the United States hold trade negotiations According to the National Information Center, the U.S agricultural trade negotiation delegation held a joint meeting with the Ministry of agriculture, the State Planning Commission and the Ministry of foreign trade and economic cooperation of China The meeting will cover issues such as the issuing time of genetically modified import safety certificate, the grace of genetically modified rules, and other issues Genetically modified agricultural products involve import issues such as genetically modified soybeans, corn, soybean oil and rapeseed The U.S agricultural trade negotiation delegation will probably make some progress in the Sino-U.S trade negotiations Third, the impact of the change of genetically modified policies The application time of imported genetically modified soybeans is greatly shortened, which makes the spot market of soybeans lose the good support for a long time The domestic soybean market may fluctuate downward, but it will not immediately decline sharply After all, a large number of imported soybeans will have 30 days to apply for and handle quota, import and other matters The most important thing is that our country's principled position on genetically modified soybean will not change, and it is still the fundamental protection for our soybean market Therefore, the rise of soybean price in the early stage is not caused by the change of supply and demand, but the speculation that the soybean is expected to be out of stock and out of stock At present, ports around the country have hoarded a large number of imported soybeans According to information, as of February 28, the soybean stocks in China's ports ranged from 750000 tons to 800000 tons After the implementation of the genetically modified regulations in late March, it is expected that soybean imports will be reduced after late March By the end of April, China's imported soybeans are likely to be used up, because such a small stock of imported soybeans is difficult to meet China's monthly crushing demand for imported soybeans, with a crushing capacity of 1.2 million tons per month As of March 7, the soybean inventory of Dalian port, a major port in Liaoning Province, is 110000 tons; the total soybean inventory of Shandong ports is 300000 to 500000 tons; the soybean inventory of Ningbo port is 100000 to 120000 tons According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, in January 2002, China imported 586000 tons of soybeans The soaring soybean prices in the spot market also confirmed this expectation The price of imported soybeans in ports in North China is 1980 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton higher than that in the earlier stage The price of imported soybeans in East China port has increased more, with the quotation of 2050 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous period However, the actual transaction is delayed, mainly because in the coming months, the supply is expected to further reduce, the price will further increase, and the seller is unwilling to sell the inventory in hand However, in the first and middle of March, soybean prices in domestic ports generally declined steadily Among them, the transaction price of Qinhuangdao in Hebei Province was 1960-1990 yuan / ton, down by 1.3% compared with the previous 1980-2020 yuan / ton; the transaction price of Tianjin Port was 1970-2000 yuan / ton, down by 1.2% compared with the previous 1990-2030 yuan / ton; the transaction price of Yantai port in Shandong Province was 1960-1990 yuan / ton, down by 1.3% compared with the previous 1980-2020 yuan / ton; the transaction price of Qingdao port in Shandong Province was 1960-1990 yuan / ton, down by 1.3% compared with the previous 1980-2020 yuan / ton The transaction price of Rizhao Port in Shandong Province is 1970-2000 yuan / ton, 1.2% lower than that of 1990-2030 yuan / ton; the transaction price of Lianyungang port in Jiangsu Province is 1980-2020 yuan / ton, 1.5% lower than that of 2010-2050 yuan / ton; the delivery price of Zhangjiagang port in Jiangsu Province is 2000-2040 yuan / ton, 1.7% lower than that of 2040-2070 yuan / ton; the transaction price of Nantong port in Jiangsu Province The price is 2000-2040 yuan / ton, down 1.7% compared with the previous 2040-2070 yuan / ton; the transaction price of Shanghai port is 2000-2040 yuan / ton, down 1.7% compared with the previous 2040-2070 yuan / ton Earlier this month, Chinese and U.S officials broke the deadlock caused by China's regulations on genetically modified products over the past few months, and the Chinese government agreed to impose Interim Measures on regulations that came into effect on March 20 But traders are cautious and have yet to finalise any soybean imports, as they wait for the Chinese government to announce how to apply for a temporary safety certificate According to traders, China is looking to ship soybeans after April South American soybeans are likely to be purchased, as this year's South American soybean production is expected to hit another record and prices are much lower than those in the United States This year, the total soybean production of Brazil and Argentina is expected to be 70 million tons At present, the price rise of South American soybean is still very low The CBOT soybean contract in July is 35 to 40 cents higher per bushel In addition, the devaluation of the Argentine Peso has added an additional competitive advantage to South American soybeans At the same time, the planting area of the world's major soybean producing countries is increasing, the soybean output and inventory are still at a high level, and the competition among the major soybean producing countries in terms of export will be increasingly fierce, and the soybean price will continue to decline According to the February supply and demand report of the U.S Department of agriculture, the ending soybean inventory of the United States in 2001 / 2001 is 7.48 million tons, which is 290000 tons lower than that of last month, but still 740000 tons higher than that of last year In addition to the United States and other countries, the global soybean ending inventory increased by 570000 tons, which is due to the recent slowdown of soybean exports from Brazil and Argentina, resulting in the increase of inventory Due to the implementation of the detailed rules of genetically modified regulations, domestic businesses are optimistic about the price trend of soybeans, but in the long run, the impact of this policy is short-term Since the pressure of international trade rules does not allow the long-term existence of technical barriers after China's accession to the WTO, in the long run, due to the continuous increase of the main soybean production in China, the international soybean price is low, and the domestic market is large Bean market situation is also not optimistic.