Soybean price determined by supply and demand

Introduction: Gao Chonghui of Bohai futures Gao Chonghui of Bohai futures recently, many analysts believe that as the import of soybeans this year will reach 17 million tons (including 10 million tons of cheap South American soybeans), the domestic soybean meal and soybean oil prices will fall significantly this year, especially to 6, 7 It is estimated that soybean meal will fall below 1800 yuan / ton or even 1700-1600 yuan / ton, and soybean oil will fall below 5500 yuan / ton This pessimism and disappointment pervaded the spot and futures markets of soybean and its products However, the author's opinion is totally opposite to the above conclusion The author thinks that the above analysis and conclusion only see the surface of things, but not the essence of things, which is one-sided We should make a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the surface phenomenon of a large number of imported soybeans, especially a large number of cheap soybeans from South America after May, so as to make a correct judgment on the price trend of domestic soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil before the new soybeans are listed this year The author believes that even if China imports 18.5 million tons of soybeans (including 11 million tons of South American soybeans) and 1.5 million tons of crude soybean oil and 2.6 million tons of palm oil (quota Figure) in this year, the price of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil will not fall sharply before the new soybean is listed in this year, and will maintain the current firm price, or even rise The main producing areas of soybean meal and soybean oil in Northeast China need to purchase soybean oil and soybean meal from other provinces and cities to meet the demand of the region after May and June of this year before the new soybean comes into the market After the new soybean was listed in, many soybean sources were snapped up by customers from other provinces and cities, resulting in their current soybean surplus By the end of February, there are only 630000 tons of commodity soybeans in the hands of farmers and traders in Heilongjiang Province and Eastern Inner Mongolia, which is less than 10% of their total soybean output in 2002; there are almost no soybeans in the hands of farmers and traders in Jilin Province; the remaining soybean raw materials of oil processing enterprises in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Eastern Inner Mongolia are less than 70% Million tons, and mainly concentrated in the hands of Heilongjiang Jiusan oil group (about 500000 tons), the vast majority of oil plants are in a state of shutdown In addition, in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and the eastern part of Inner Mongolia, the national and local reserves of soybeans are less than 700000 tons, so by the end of February 2003, the total amount of soybeans that the region can provide to the market is only 2 million tons (including hundreds of thousands of tons of high water soybeans in the eastern part of Heilongjiang Province), even if all of them are used as pressing materials of local oil processing enterprises, they can not meet the local demand Soybean oil and meal demand from March to August Moreover, until now, the soybean oil and soybean meal processed and produced by Jiusan oil group have been sold to the markets outside the province, and the soybean in the hands of farmers and traders in Heilongjiang Province and the east of Inner Mongolia is still shipping edible beans to the provinces and cities at the rate of more than 400000 tons per month In this situation, the edible oil and soybean meal needed by Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Inner Mongolia will be purchased from other provinces and cities after May and June, otherwise it will be out of stock With a population of over 70 million in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, XD needs about 80000 tons of soybean oil per month From March to August, it needs about 500000 tons of edible soybean oil, with a gap of about 400000 tons From March to August, it needs more than 1.2 million tons of soybean meal, with a gap of about 500000 tons All these need to be purchased from the market of other provinces to meet the local demand At that time, the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal in the above three areas will surely rise The price of soybean oil will rise to about 6400 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean meal will rise to about 2100 yuan / ton, which is generally higher than that of other provinces and cities At present, the price of soybean oil in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Inner Mongolia is as high as 6100 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean meal is as high as 2000 yuan / ton How can such a high price of soybean oil and soybean meal make the price of domestic soybean fall below 2400 yuan / ton? It will only rise to more than 2800 yuan / ton Second, the huge demand for soybean meal this year is enough to offset the pressure brought by imported soybeans Since 2000, feed production in China has increased by about 6% for three consecutive years, especially for concentrated feed and premixed feed, with an annual increase of more than 10% In 2002, the output of compound feed, concentrated feed and premix reached 82 million tons, an average increase of 5.6% over 2001 It is predicted that the average growth rate of these three kinds of feed will be more than 5% in 2003, so the total feed output of China will reach more than 86 million tons in 2003 Generally speaking, the average proportion of soybean meal in the three kinds of feeds should be about 21% (the average proportion of soybean meal in compound feed is about 15%, and the average proportion of soybean meal in concentrated feed is about 50%) Then at least 18.06 million tons of soybean meal should be produced in China to meet the demand, not 15.2 million tons of soybean meal that some organizations say can meet the demand of domestic feed industry In addition, farmers in Northeast China, Shandong, Hebei, Northern Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui and other provinces, which are the main soybean producing areas in China, are used to feed their livestock with the soybean cake squeezed by small rural oil plants and villages and towns in these areas The total amount of soybean meal squeezed by small and medium rural oil plants in these areas is only about 700000 tons; there are also export and industrial fields（ Mainly in the food industry and pharmaceutical industry), the demand for soybean meal is also nearly 700000 tons Therefore, in 2003, the total domestic demand for soybean meal and soybean cake will reach about 19.5 million tons In this way, it is necessary to crush about 24.5 million tons of soybean in 2003 to produce about 19.5 million tons of soybean meal and soybean cake It's not hard to explain why from September 2002 to January 2003, China imported 6.36 million tons of soybeans while harvesting nearly 15 million tons of soybeans (the import figure is 1.39 million tons more than the same period of last year, up 28% year on year) The price of soybean meal in China not only did not fall (including soybean oil), but also rose Therefore, even if 18.5 million tons of imported soybeans and 6 million tons of domestic soybeans are used for crushing this year, it is difficult to meet the domestic demand for soybean meal, let alone excess That is to say, before the new soybean goes on the market this year, the domestic soybean meal price will never fall below 1800 yuan / ton, and will fluctuate around 100 yuan / ton at the current price, and may rise, especially in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region In fact, the current situation of XD is: in the case of large-scale soybean arrivals in the United States (about 2.9 million tons of soybean arrivals in February and March this year, more than 1.2 million tons more than 1.7 million tons in the same period last year) The price of soybean meal from south to north is rising instead of falling Some people will say that this is due to the high price of imported soybeans from the United States, but I think this is only one of the reasons The main reason is the strong demand for soybean meal in China In order to basically meet the domestic demand for soybean meal, it is necessary to have more than 2 million tons of soybean pressing per month Others say that after April, when a large number of cheap South American soybeans arrive, the domestic soybean meal price will drop The author thinks that even if a large number of low-priced South American soybeans arrive after April, the domestic soybean meal price will not fall sharply The market will not be because the price of imported soybeans is low, so the soybean meal price must be low Because of the strong demand for soybean meal, the market will support the price of soybean meal at least above 1900 yuan / ton, and possibly over 2100 yuan / ton Thirdly, it is difficult to suppress the price of domestic oil and fat for a large number of imported soybeans in this year As it is predicted that 17 million tons of soybeans will be imported in China, especially 10 million tons of South American soybeans Meanwhile, the domestic rapeseed harvest is expected to reach 12.5-13 million tons In addition, 1.5 million tons of soybean oil will be imported, and the country has issued another 260 million tons Import quota of 10000 tons of palm oil Therefore, many people expect that after April, especially in June and July, the price of domestic oil will fall sharply, and the price of soybean oil will fall below 5000 yuan / ton The author thinks that before the new soybean goes on the market, the domestic soybean oil price is hard to fall below 5500 yuan / ton Although this year's oil supply increased significantly, it just met the domestic demand for oil this year According to our survey and calculation, the per capita consumption of edible oil in 2003 is up to 12 kg / year According to the 1.3 billion population figure of the 2000 census, the consumption of household oil in 2003 will be over 15.6 million tons In addition, the consumption of oil in other industries and exports besides the food industry will also be up to 1 million tons The annual total demand for vegetable oil in China is over 16.6 million tons XD let's take a look at the supply of vegetable oil this year Import 18.5 million tons of soybean and produce 3.3 million tons of soybean oil (calculated by 18%); process 6 million tons of domestic soybean and produce 900000 tons of soybean oil (calculated by 15%); press 12.4 million tons of rapeseed and produce 4.34 million tons of vegetable oil (calculated by 35%); 2.8 million tons of domestic peanut oil and 800000 tons of cotton oil (due to 2000 The annual output of peanut and cotton decreased significantly, and the output of other oil was 300000 tons In addition, it is estimated that 1.5 million tons of soybean oil and 2.6 million tons of palm oil will be imported In total, the total supply of domestic vegetable oil in this year will reach 16.54 million tons, and the demand for 16.6 million tons of vegetable oil in this year is still slightly insufficient, and there is no oversupply In addition, the current price of imported crude soybean oil is more than 5700 yuan / ton, and the price of imported crude soybean oil in the later period will not be less than 5400 yuan / ton, so the price of domestic soybean oil will not fall below 5500 yuan when a large number of imported soybeans arrive in Hong Kong The price of soybean oil in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will not fall, but will rise to about 6400 yuan / ton The situation that the price of soybean oil and soybean meal is higher in the northeast and lower in the South has already appeared after the Spring Festival, and will be more serious before the new soybean goes on the market XD 4 The imported South American soybeans are not as cheap as people think Many people think that the price of imported South American soybeans will be below 2300 yuan / ton after April, which will make the price of soybean meal and soybean oil, the downstream products of soybeans, drop sharply This is a one-sided understanding Although the price of imported soybeans is low, the strong demand of the market is enough to prevent the price of soybean meal and soybean oil from falling In addition, the price of South American soybeans imported into China is not less than 2300 yuan / ton, most of which should be more than 2400 yuan / ton This is because most of the domestic crushing plants purchase South American soybeans with a premium of about 80 cents According to the premium and CBOT soybean price in the United States, most of them are more than 2400 yuan / ton From the current shipment of South American soybeans to the entry of South American soybeans into domestic crushing plants in July and August, the price will not be lower than 2400 yuan / ton, and will rise to 2500 yuan / ton