Soybean market rose slightly in November

Introduction: in November, the domestic soybean market basically maintained the trend of downturn, but after the middle of the year, there was a turnaround and soybean prices rose slightly During the week of November 16-23, 2001, the purchase price of platforms in Heilongjiang province increased by 2 points compared with the previous week, and now it is about 0.80-0.86 yuan / Jin The price of soybeans sent to local oil plants in Harbin is about 1740 yuan / ton, 40 yuan / ton higher than that in the first ten days The price of soybean sent to Dalian oil plant is 1820-1850 yuan / ton, while the price in the last ten days is 1780-1830 yuan / ton The factory price of domestic soybean in Shandong is 1840-1870 yuan / ton, while the price range in the last ten days is 1800-1850 yuan / ton In terms of imported soybeans: the spot price of imported soybeans in ports in Shandong and Northern Jiangsu is still at a low level, with an average price of about 1910-1920 yuan / ton and a wholesale price of about 1880-1900 yuan / ton At present, about 70% of the port's imported soybean stocks are ordered by soybean crushing enterprises In addition, 30% of the imported soybeans have not completed the quarantine and testing procedures The factors affecting the soybean market in November are: in the early stage, the increase of domestic soybean meal price pulled the domestic soybean price At the beginning of November, the price of domestic soybean meal stabilized, while the price of domestic soybean fell, and the profit and loss pattern of oil plants changed Therefore, oil plants increased the purchase of soybean to increase the amount of soybean crushing, which led to a slight increase in the price of domestic soybean in the near future CBOT soybean futures market continued to strengthen The soybean crushers in Guangdong, Fujian and other southern regions of China have a large demand for soybeans Due to the inconvenience of soybean transportation in Northeast China and the high transportation cost, the southern region relies more on imports The rising international soybean price will inevitably increase the import price of soybeans, affect the soybean market price in the southern region, and thus make the southern crushers more turn to domestic soybeans, which is in a certain way Degree of support for the rise in soybean prices In the middle of November, it was learned from the national planning and food authorities that the Chinese government has decided to increase the purchase of 570000 tons of national storage soybeans for storage in the fourth quarter of this year The acquisition area is basically Heilongjiang and Dalian in the northeast The government's increasing efforts in soybean procurement also played a role in promoting the rise of soybean prices Despite the recent recovery of soybean market, the upward trend of soybean market still faces great resistance At present, the national soybean meal market is oversupplied, the demand for soybean meal in the breeding and feed industries is relatively stable, and the consumption of soybean meal has not entered the peak season Therefore, it is not expected that the soybean meal market will play a significant role in promoting soybean price It is understood that at present, the soybean pressing capacity in China has reached 100 thousand tons / day, nearly double the actual demand Soybean meal sales market, most of the time is oversupply, buyer LED market price The low sales price of soybean meal in the early stage has forced some manufacturers to stop production After the price of soybean meal increases, it will attract some manufacturers that stopped production in the early stage to start production again, which will rapidly increase the supply of soybean meal and restrain the price rise of soybean meal At present, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient and the supply exceeds the demand As soybean is in seasonal oversupply, it is expected that the domestic supply and demand will not change qualitatively in the future In addition, the quality of soybeans is poor because of the content and broken grains of soybeans produced in the northeast of China At the early stage, China imported a lot of soybeans At present, the port imports a large amount of soybeans The total amount of ports in China is about 1.2 million tons, only about 250000 tons in the same period last year In the later period, there are still imported soybeans, and the quantity is also larger than that of the same period last year According to the data recently released by the General Administration of customs, the soybean imports in October 2001 were 89772400 tons, the same as last year The import volume from January to October was 12.06 million tons, an increase of 35.3% over the same period last year Due to the large import of soybeans in the early stage, the large amount of stocks in the port will restrain the price rise of soybeans in China After China's accession to the WTO, the atmosphere of domestic soybean market is strong First of all, after China's accession to the world trade organization, the domestic agricultural products market will face the pressure of opening to the outside world Secondly, after China's accession to the WTO, the supporting measures in the price protection system of agricultural products and the price subsidy of means of production will be limited Thirdly, after China's accession to the WTO, the domestic soybean market will gradually integrate with the international market, and the soybean import tariff will be gradually reduced The domestic soybean does not account for high quality in quality and price, while the import tariff of agricultural products in China will be reduced from the previous 22% to 17.5% In 2001, 1.7 million tons of soybean oil quota will be allowed to be imported The impact of domestic soybeans on international soybeans will be aggravated, and the market will gradually increase the atmosphere, which will hinder the upward price In addition, the global soybean supply has increased, and the price rise has also been restrained Although the air atmosphere in the market is strong, it is not without good news The detailed rules for genetically modified crops jumped again in the market rumors, but I believe it will not be too far from the date of promulgation The implementation of these rules will have a significant impact on the import of genetically modified crops after China's accession to the world trade organization In addition, new year's Day is approaching, market demand and metropolis will play a role in promoting soybean prices Combined with the above factors, the general trend of soybean market is still falling Under the stimulation of many factors, it will continue to walk out of the small rebound market It still depends on the further development of the market when the general trend is reversed.