Soybean market on the edge of policy

Introduction: at present, the price of domestic soybean market is low, and the spot price of soybean in Northeast China is even the lowest in history The purchase price in some regions has been reduced to less than 1500 yuan / ton "We can't believe how the price is so low this year," said one bean farmer "After entering the WTO, I am most worried about the impact on agriculture "Premier Zhu's words are still fresh in our memory Soybean is just a miniature of China's agriculture facing WTO One of the main reasons for the current low price is the excessive import in the early stage On June 6, after the State Council issued the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms (Draft), China's soybean import increased first and then decreased According to the statistics of the customs, the landed imports of soybeans from July to November were 153, 158, 183, 93 and 780000 tons respectively, of which the largest imports were in August and September, mainly because of the large increase in speculative imports Some manufacturers raided to "reverse sign" import contracts on the date before the promulgation of the regulations (i.e June 6) 9 After October, this abnormal situation was stopped by the relevant departments in time, and the import volume fell month by month It is estimated that the import landed volume in December will be 750000 tons For the import volume in January next year, the market is expected to reduce to about 200000 tons At present, the spot price of domestic soybean is quite low, and the price in the production area has been reduced to the lowest in history The reason for this situation is that, in addition to the substantial increase in global soybean production, one of the main reasons is that the early import volume is too large At present, the total inventory of the port is about 1 million tons In addition, the seasonal start-up of small oil plants in Northeast, North and East China after the arrival of new beans makes the price of bean deep-processing products depressed, resulting in insufficient start-up of large oil plants The relative lack of concentration of soybean demand has also hindered the rise of soybean prices 2 The selection of the time for the introduction of the detailed rules on genetically modified organisms in agriculture (Draft) is a formal legal document issued by China No one can change the existence of this regulation, which is undeniable As a supplement to the regulations, the detailed rules will become a guiding document for the specific implementation of the regulations in soybean import and export The introduction of the detailed rules can be said to be "half covered with Pipa" The reasons for the postponement of the introduction several times should be in-depth For this, the author makes a brief analysis Since 2000, the soybean production in South America has increased rapidly In 2001 / 2002, the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina reached 70.25 million tons, which is close to that in the United States The United States supports farmers' production with disguised soybean price subsidy policies to expand their market share in the world market, while Brazil's soybean production seizes the world market with low-cost expansion Because of the "price war" between them, the world soybean price center of gravity is constantly moving down China's soybean farmers are the biggest losers in this war, because China's soybean imports have increased year by year, reaching about 13.5 million tons in 2001 China's accession to the WTO on December 11, 2001 is undoubtedly a bright spot for the world economy More than 2 million tons of soybean oil quota will become a reality after China's accession to the WTO China is a country with high reputation It is also our inevitable choice to abide by the WTO commitments One ton of imported soybean oil is equivalent to four tons of imported soybeans, while domestic soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal are stable in total amount and maintain a dynamic balance in structure and quantity If the relative balance of soybean and soybean oil imports cannot be maintained, the market price of soybean and oil will fluctuate frequently Under the inevitable situation of soybean oil import, in order to maintain the dynamic balance of domestic soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal, China has only to import as little soybean as possible In terms of price, the import price of American soybeans to China is relatively high, which has little competitive advantage compared with South American soybeans, while the price of South American soybeans is relatively low, which has a competitive advantage, and is the most harmful to the soybean price of China, especially the interests of soybean farmers In other words, the rise of the South American market is not only impacting the American market and harming the interests of American farmers, but also impacting the domestic market and harming the interests of Chinese bean farmers Therefore, in the future trade, China is likely to stand with the United States to deal with the expansion of South American soybeans In this way, we can understand the reason for the delay in the introduction of transgenic rules On the one hand, it is of little significance for China to introduce this policy when the soybean price in the United States is high and the import volume is relatively low; on the other hand, China is not willing to have trade conflicts with the United States at this stage There is also a sufficient supply of domestic soybeans at present, which is not as effective as fighting against the low price sales of South American soybeans and protecting the interests of Chinese farmers after April next year 3 Strong demand implies hope The latest USDA supply and demand report shows that the total global soybean consumption in 2001 / 2002 was 182 million tons, an increase of 9.13 million tons and 21 million tons over the previous two years This year's global soybean output is 182.5 million tons, an increase of 8.2 million tons and 22.6 million tons over the previous two years In comparison, the demand growth of world soybeans in this year exceeded the supply of 930000 tons (913-820) The development of China's feeding industry has led to the growth of feed consumption; the consumption structure of vegetable oil has changed, especially the proportion of salad oil produced by soybean oil purification in people's daily edible oil is increasing; in recent years, China has built many large-scale crushing plants in the South with daily processing capacity of more than 1000 tons All of these are the basic reasons for the strong demand of soybean in China It is predicted that the high demand of soybean market in China will not change much next year However, in the global and China's such strong demand, why the global soybean and domestic soybean prices will fall sharply? The main reason is the "price war" between the United States and South America But the law of nature is that "the extremes of things must be reversed" It can be said that the soybean price war in the southern and northern hemispheres of the Americas has caused heavy losses to all countries; the price subsidies paid by the United States due to the continuous decline of soybean prices have increased the financial burden; the price of domestic soybean in China has also been reduced to the limit that farmers can bear Countries in the taste of "price war" brought about by the bitter fruit, but also in reflection A new bill of the United States Department of agriculture is in the process of being proposed, among which the proposal of reducing soybean loan subsidy put forward by the house of Representatives is attached great importance by the United States government; the exploitable land resources in Brazil are also gradually reduced under the constraint of development cost All of these represent the end of global soybean production expansion by means of planting area expansion in the near future It can be said that the hope of soybean market price rebound has been growing in people's sigh (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: