Soybean market analysis and future prospects

Introduction: Recently, the domestic soybean market has come out of a very obvious policy market In the case of CBOT index decline, domestic soybean price and soybean index rise steadily As we all know, China's soybean import volume is now the first in the world, so the domestic soybean price largely depends on the international market soybean price For a long time, CBOT has basically become the compass of domestic soybean market On August 16, the CBOT soybean futures index fell sharply due to the impact of an unpredictable gene found by Belgian scientists in the US genetically modified soybean, and the price of each delivery month fell 13-15 percent But the domestic soybean market has made a very different response Liandou launched a strong counter attack on August 17, and the price of the whole period rose vigorously, once touching the trading board Soybean prices in Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean producing area, also stepped out of the downward trend in early August and started a new round of climbing As of August 27, the soybean price in Heilongjiang Province was 1880 yuan / ton It's up 20 yuan per ton from two weeks ago On the surface, the reason for the deviation is that the import of soybeans decreased this month and the domestic demand for soybeans was stable, which resulted in the shortage of supply and the rise of soybean prices And its essence is the policy guidance factor produced by the national regulations on the safety of agricultural genetically modified organisms Since the government said it would issue a new policy on genetically modified organisms, China has almost no new import contracts Traders are reluctant to order new soybeans because they fear that if new rules and regulations are enacted, their goods may fail to pass strict inspection regulations Therefore, it directly leads to the decline of domestic soybean imports Last week, South American ports saw a drop in shipments compared with the previous weeks, with only two new ships carrying soybeans to China, with shipments of about 100000 tons On June 6, the Chinese government promulgated the regulations on the safety of agricultural genetically modified organisms (the detailed rules of the regulations have not yet been published), which requires genetically modified products to have a certificate proving that genetically modified products are not harmful to human beings, animals and the environment, and that imported genetically modified products must be labeled with special labels The United States is the largest soybean supplier in China, and more than 60% of soybeans in the United States are genetically modified products, so the impact of soybean import will be great The original intention of this policy is to increase the market competitiveness of domestic soybeans and implement non-tariff barriers Under the influence of this policy, from the beginning of June, domestic soybeans began to go bull, and the index rose accordingly At the beginning of August, it was reported that the details of the genetically modified regulations might be released in October when Bush visited China Liandou futures index fell in response, and domestic soybean prices began to decline Until the unpredictable DNA fragments were found in American soybeans on the 14th, the restriction effect of the regulations was strengthened, which led to broad imagination of domestic soybean market, and a new round of upward attack of futures index and spot market The policy guidance among them is not predictable Looking forward to the future market, the author thinks that the possibility of further strengthening of domestic soybean is unlikely First of all, there is no evidence that the unpredictable DNA found in genetically modified soybeans in the United States is harmful to human body, and the CBOT index has begun to stabilize, which shows that the market has gradually digested the impact of this factor Secondly, despite the drought hit Heilongjiang this year, according to the statistics of relevant departments, soybean production will not be greatly affected From the international point of view, the global soybean supply and demand is basically balanced, so for a big importing country like China, the impact of soybean price fluctuation will not be too large Thirdly, especially, facing China's accession to the WTO, our government is bound to formulate our foreign policy in accordance with international standards, so the detailed rules of the genetically modified regulations will not affect the import of harmless soybeans Our government will only seek a balance between actively entering WTO and strengthening the competitiveness of domestic soybeans, rather than blindly seeking a barrier Finally, according to traders' estimates, China's soybean gap this year is around 12 million tons All of these soybeans need to be imported, so the Chinese government will not delay the release of the detailed rules of the GM regulations too late, which will affect the domestic soybean processing Once the detailed rules of "genetically modified regulations" are published, domestic soybeans will enter the normal competitive orbit In conclusion, soybean prices will not rise excessively (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: