Soda ash: "three wheels" drive full of stamina

"The soda ash market has entered an upswing cycle, but the increase and pace need to be further verified
.

" Many industry insiders believe that the soda ash market will maintain an upward trend in the near future driven by reduced supply and increased demand

Supply-side tightening

　Supply-side tightening　Supply-side tightening

"When the supply side declines to a certain extent, the market price will rise
.

" Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures, believes that after the implementation of the later maintenance plan for soda ash producers, the decline in operating rates has become one of the main driving forces for the upward price of soda ash

In the near term, May to August is the overhaul season for soda ash companies, and many companies have entered the overhaul period one after another in June
.

However, compared with last year's spring and summer overhaul scales were relatively scattered, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry did not drop significantly, and basically fluctuated within a narrow range of 80%

Regarding the market supply situation in the next month, Zhang Linglu believes that with more soda ash companies with maintenance plans, the supply is expected to decrease, which may drive the price of soda ash to continue to rise
.

In the long run, as the country vigorously promotes the goal of "carbon neutrality", the synthetic alkali process may be subject to certain restrictions due to the high energy consumption of the production process and the pollution risk of by-products
.

Therefore, in the next two years, the new production capacity of the synthetic alkali method is less and there is an expectation of exit of the existing production capacity

Overweight on the demand side

　Code on the　demand sideCode on the demand side

The industry generally believes that the cold repair production of flat glass and the concentrated production of photovoltaic glass can provide an important driving force for the upward trend of the soda ash market from the demand side
.

Zhang Linglu believes that the concentrated production of photovoltaic glass is the biggest driving factor for the demand side of soda ash this year
.

Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Reporting the Pilot Program for the Development of Distributed Photovoltaics on the Roof of the Entire County (City, District)", which to a certain extent greatly dispelled the market's concerns about the prospects for the release of soda ash demand in photovoltaic glass

In 2020, the domestic output of photovoltaic glass will be 10,215,21 million tons, and the demand for soda ash will be around 1.
47 million tons
.

As of June 24, the daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass was 35,300 tons, an increase of 19.

The demand for flat glass has also become one of the driving factors for the upward trend of the soda ash market
.

In 2021, there will be more domestic flat glass cold repair production and new capacity

Macro blessing

　Macro blessing　Macro blessing

According to Zhang Wangqiang, an analyst at Essence Securities, the surge in overseas trona prices, coupled with the release of demand for lithium battery materials and the photovoltaic industry, will make the soda ash market more than expected
.

"On the one hand, overseas trona prices have increased substantially
.

In 2021, global trona producers have sold out, and the soda ash cycle is gradually opening

At the same time, in the process of accelerating the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality", lithium batteries and photovoltaics are the two major power sources that will drive global demand for soda ash in the future
.
Zhang Wangqiang introduced that lithium carbonate is an essential material for the positive electrode of lithium-ion batteries, and soda ash is an essential raw material for the production of lithium carbonate
.
Regardless of the process, soda ash is required for production
.
According to Genesis Energy's forecast, the global demand for lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025 and 2030 is expected to reach 1.
14 million tons and 3 million tons respectively, equivalent to 2.
28 million tons and 6 million tons of soda ash, and the future stock may further exceed expectations
.

　　"Photovoltaic glass will also bring more than two years of prosperity to the domestic soda ash industry
.
" Zhang Wangqiang introduced that according to the relevant IEA data, the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power by 2030 will be four times that of 2020.
Considering multiple factors, a single GW The demand for glass from new photovoltaic installations is 45,000 to 60,000 tons
.
From 2021 to 2023, the demand for soda ash in China's photovoltaic glass is expected to increase by 370,000 tons, 750,000 tons, and 510,000 tons respectively compared with the previous year
.
In the long run, under the background of the photovoltaic industry's "parity on the Internet" and the accelerating pace of the entire industry, it is expected that the global photovoltaic industry will have a demand of 4.
61 million tons of soda ash in 2025, thereby driving the long-term prosperity of soda ash
.

　　In summary, industry insiders generally believe that the soda ash market price rise cycle is more certain under the guidance of the supply-demand relationship of small overall production capacity growth in the soda ash industry and expected increase in demand
.