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Malaysian palm oil futures prices have soared by more than 40%, while soybean oil prices have risen by more than 50%, and rapeseed oil prices have also reached new highs
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The price of palm oil, the world's most consumed vegetable oil, soared to a record high last week, raising concerns about global food price inflation
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Reasons for soaring vegetable oil prices
Bloomberg pointed out that the reason for the soaring palm oil price is that "after the epidemic, with the reopening of the economy, pent-up demand was released, and as energy prices soared, the prospects for the use of renewable fuels were greater, and the production of major producing countries was lower than expected.
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Sahia, the owner of Palm oil Analytics, a Singapore-based palm oil analysis company? Sathia Varqa said: "Palm oil is not only tight in supply, which keeps its prices high, but energy prices are also fueling the flames
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Due to the restricted employment of foreign workers under the epidemic, which has exacerbated labor shortages, Malaysia's palm oil production has declined severely this year
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The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported that the output in the first nine months of this year was the lowest level since 2017
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The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported that the output in the first nine months of this year was the lowest level since 2017
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Varqa said that before the implementation of policies that may cool the commodity market, such as raising interest rates, palm oil prices will rise unstoppable
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In addition, the analysis of CITIC Construction Investment Securities believes that:
The global palm oil pricing center is in Malaysia
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According to the current agency’s phased output and export tracking of the horse palm in October, it is hard to say that the horse palm inventory has improved too much, and may still vary with the production season under the production that was basically flat in October and the export estimate is still at a high level.
Sex declines and there is further contraction
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According to the current agency’s phased output and export tracking of the horse palm in October, it is hard to say that the horse palm inventory has improved too much, and may still vary with the production season under the production that was basically flat in October and the export estimate is still at a high level.
Sex declines and there is further contraction
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The moderate intensity of La Niña from the end of the year to the beginning of next year may bring floods to Southeast Asia and further increase the risk of palm oil production.
It is expected to maintain a strong overall palm oil quotation in the producing areas before the second quarter of next year, restricting the opening of the domestic palm oil import profit window and Inventory reconstruction
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It is expected to maintain a strong overall palm oil quotation in the producing areas before the second quarter of next year, restricting the opening of the domestic palm oil import profit window and Inventory reconstruction
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Not only palm oil, soy rapeseed oil prices are also unstoppable
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According to the analysis of Drewry Shipping Research (Drewry), from January to May this year, traders carried out corresponding replenishment activities to prevent further blockade and quarantine measures.
In addition, due to the increasing importance of the United States, Brazil and Argentina, Biofuels squeezed the supply of some major importing countries as edible oil, thereby pushing up global soybean oil prices: from 1,099 US dollars/ton in January to 1,569 US dollars/ton
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In addition, due to the increasing importance of the United States, Brazil and Argentina, Biofuels squeezed the supply of some major importing countries as edible oil, thereby pushing up global soybean oil prices: from 1,099 US dollars/ton in January to 1,569 US dollars/ton
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After the decline in demand for biofuels in the United States, soybean oil prices tended to normal in June
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But Drewry believes that with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in major importing countries in Asia and the gradual recovery of the economy, the demand for edible oil will further increase
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The soy oil market supply tightening phenomenon may continue until 2022
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But Drewry believes that with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in major importing countries in Asia and the gradual recovery of the economy, the demand for edible oil will further increase
.
The soy oil market supply tightening phenomenon may continue until 2022
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In terms of rapeseed oil, due to the expected production decline in 2021-2022, the major canola exporter, Canada, the price of rapeseed oil this year is also strongly supported.
Even if the demand in the demanding countries shrinks, it is difficult to shake the price
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Even if the demand in the demanding countries shrinks, it is difficult to shake the price
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Worries about global food price inflation intensify
The Food Price Index of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization includes a basket of foods such as grains, vegetable oils, dairy products, meat and sugar
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The soaring price of vegetable oil drove the rise of the index
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The soaring price of vegetable oil drove the rise of the index
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Last month, the index hit a ten-year high
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This has exacerbated concerns about global food price inflation
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This has exacerbated concerns about global food price inflation
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The surge in global food prices to a decade high is a bad sign for emerging market economies where households allocate more budget to food
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Albert Edwards of Societe Generale had warned before the outbreak that rising food prices would trigger social unrest
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