Small and medium-sized crushing enterprises face the choice of life and death

Introduction: new page 2 focuses on the futures market while we focus on the futures market and reflect on yellow soybean 1 At the same time, when reviewing the loss of foreign exchange caused by the sharp rise of international market price of domestic soybean related enterprises, let's take a look at the development status of those soybean related circulation enterprises, especially the large number of small and medium-sized crushing enterprises, let's care about the fate of spot circulation enterprises, and see whether the domestic futures market is real It is exploring a new way for its later development In 2003, the small and medium-sized crushing enterprises faced the double impact from the spot market and the futures market In the spot market, the continuous development and expansion of large oil processing enterprises, the advantages in procurement cost, operation scale and sales make the survival of small and medium-sized crushing enterprises constantly threatened The price of Donghai grain and oil in Zhangjiagang soybean meal market dropped as much as 200 yuan on the same day/ This is the best example of how Tian's move has left these domestic enterprises at a loss The rising soybean price in the futures market, driven by the speculative forces, keeps breaking new highs The domestic and international soybean prices have reached a five-year high, while the downstream soybean products are difficult to follow, and the prices are always in a low state The huge price difference between the soybean and the downstream soybean products has caused these enterprises to be overwhelmed, and the survival of small and medium-sized crushing enterprises is in danger 7kh when we continue to follow the development mileage of these small and medium-sized enterprises and continue to pursue, we have sincerely felt that such a future - small and medium-sized crushing enterprises are facing extremely bad competitive environment, their development has reached a life and death moment It is not alarmism, but the urgent problem that China's small and medium-sized enterprises are facing Although there is the law of "natural selection, survival of the fittest", a large part of the national tax revenue comes from these enterprises after all Under the premise of great market demand, leaving the processing profits to the domestic is the fundamental reason for the rise of crushing enterprises, which is also the reason that China has become a "world processing factory" Therefore, the development of small and medium-sized crushing enterprises is directly related to the real interests of the country Statistics from relevant departments show that at present, there are only dozens of large-scale oil processing enterprises in China, while there are 5600 small and medium-sized processing enterprises, so the crushing capacity of large-scale enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises and the proportion of tax paid by the state are self-evident, and their impact in the national economy is huge At present, the domestic small and medium-sized pressing enterprises are facing double pressures The prices of raw materials in the international and domestic markets have increased substantially, and the prices of raw materials remain high, while the prices of downstream products of domestic soybeans are low, and the pressing profits are very small, and even the situation of continuous loss management has occurred At the same time, the foreign exporters and large domestic importers have exploited and exploited each layer, which leads to the small and medium-sized pressing enterprises in the original market The procurement of materials is almost at a disadvantage, which is common in both the international market and the domestic market With the rapid development of China's economy, the adjustment of people's diet structure and the increase of vegetable oil demand, the demand for soybean oil has increased, the breeding industry has developed rapidly, and the demand for soybean meal has also increased In recent years, China's crushing enterprises have mushroomed in China's coastal cities In particular, the formation of many large soybean crushing enterprises, such as Donghai grain and Oil Co., Ltd of Zhangjiagang and Huanong group, has directly impacted China's domestic crushing industry layout and industrial structure China's crushing center of gravity has shifted from a pattern close to the main production areas to a position close to the joint of production and marketing, and further to the main breeding areas in the south, which is also the Dalian Commodity Exchange The fundamental reason for the southward relocation of the designated warehouse for soybean meal delivery is that the crushing enterprises in China have formed a pattern of deterrence for small and medium-sized enterprises 7kh is caused by the change of processing raw materials of domestic pressing enterprises in China At present, the domestic squeezing pattern basically presents the pattern that the coastal ports mainly import soybeans, and the domestic soybeans in autumn harvest serve the northern processing enterprises In this way, many small and medium-sized oil plants in northern China have closed down, leaving a small number of major large and medium-sized oil plants and some small oil plants This year, the most distinctive feature of northern China is the rapid expansion of the pressing capacity of the Jiu San group The large oil plants formed in this production area can firmly control the supply and price of domestic soybeans in a certain period, so as to take the lead, Support domestic soybean price The most obvious is the rapid expansion of the press of the Jiu San group The rise of the Jiu San group has built a support for the price of the spot market Why is this pattern formed? Why are our domestic small and medium-sized press enterprises struggling in the development of 2003? 7kh has experienced arduous negotiations with the United States, and China's genetically modified policy has been fully implemented since March 20, 2002 At one time, China's soybean import was up to 6 This period of time stopped in May It is precisely because of the implementation of this policy in China that the soybean stock accumulated in recent years in Northeast China has been basically emptied Since the beginning of the year, imported beans have taken the lead in filling the domestic oil extraction market Due to the tight supply of goods, the speculative forces in Dalian market took the lead in pushing forward the futures price to a high above 2650, The spot price also surged, the high price of domestic soybeans brought by the tight supply of goods increased the production difficulty of the crushing enterprises Before and after the Spring Festival, the oil factories in the north of China have stopped purchasing domestic soybeans due to processing losses, which actually means that from March of this year After January, most of the domestic soybeans have been withdrawn from the oil extraction market, and the soybeans used for oil extraction are completely dependent on imported soybeans After the rush buying upsurge of last autumn, the domestic soybean has exited the oil extraction market ahead of time in 2003 This has led to the expansion of soybean imports since March Due to various factors such as production and policies, China's demand for soybeans is extremely strong The purchase of American soybeans has continued from August last year to the beginning of April this year At present, China has imported 7.6 million tons of American soybeans, 3.4 million tons higher than the same period last year Therefore, from March to September, in order to meet the demand of oil extraction, the monthly soybean import volume in China will certainly be larger than that in previous years, and it is expected that the monthly import volume should be kept at the level of 1.5-1.7 million tons at least Only in this way can China's annual pressing demand of 24 million tons be met The high price of soybeans has crushed small and medium-sized oil mills, and most of them have taken measures to stop production and limit production At the same time that the price of soybeans is higher and the domestic spot price is still high, China's strength highlights the international soybean market of CBOT While realizing that China's buying is heavily involved in the international market, the mainstream of the speculative power of commodity funds in the international market is constantly pushing up the futures price, forcing China's buying to comply In fact, due to the change of soybean trade mode, the operational risk of Chinese domestic crushing enterprises has been transformed from the simple domestic price fluctuation risk to the domestic and international risk simultaneously, because under the guidance of foreign businessmen in recent years, the soybean trade mode has been changed from 1999 The year's purchase basis, premium and price fixing are transformed into the current purchase premium and price fixing, which means that the risk of international price fluctuation also needs to be borne by domestic crushing enterprises The speculative power of the international market is to see the rise of China's crushing enterprises, to see the transformation of China's trade mode, and to fight hard in the international soybean futures market, pushing the futures price up to 5% of 600 Since the high point of, the high cost operation of domestic pressing enterprises has been formed With the price of imported beans rising driven by domestic demand, oil plants have stopped production or reduced production Some large oil plants produce in proper amount, with sufficient stock of raw materials Many small and medium-sized oil plants, especially those in the north which mainly squeeze domestic soybeans, can not get enough raw materials to stop production and wait and see Small and medium-sized oil plants in other regions of China are also facing high cost operation driven by speculative forces in the futures market The huge risk brought by the excessive speculation in the futures market is completely transferred to the squeezing enterprises, which can't bear such risk, so they have to stop production and limit production, especially in 2003 7Kh Although we know that small and medium-sized enterprises are always at a disadvantage in the competition, the operation mode of enterprises and the operation mode adapted to the market can reduce the operation risk of enterprises to a certain extent China's transgenic policy does play a role in the macro planning of the country and protecting the interests of farmers in stages, but it also sacrifices the interests of small and medium-sized enterprises in stages On the premise of profit, the foreign exchange sacrificed by the domestic crushing enterprises due to high price purchase should be enough to cover the cost of the state subsidies for farmers to plant soybeans and industrial adjustment In 2002 / 03 alone, according to the total import of soybeans in China of 15 million tons, the price of CBOT soybeans rose by 25%, and China's foreign exchange needs to consume at least 10 billion yuan more, How to operate the soybean purchase operation in the domestic and international futures market, avoid the simple speculative force to promote the substantial price rise, and at the same time, how to use the futures market to stimulate the adjustment of farmers' planting structure, and how to lock the interests of farmers in the futures market is a subject that needs deep research For those small and medium-sized enterprises that do not participate in futures trading, we hope to learn more Even through a small amount of participation, they may have a forward-looking awareness, reduce their own operational risk through the futures market, so as to avoid a series of risks caused by the increasing cost of staged excessive speculation in the futures market and sharp fluctuations in the spot market At present, although the domestic soybean futures market has begun to take shape, it should not be very perfect in the operation of varieties Considering the protection of farmers' interests, yellow soybean 1 was launched At the same time of contract No.1, whether the interests of domestic pressing enterprises are protected is taken into consideration After all, our soybean imports are basically fully applied in the field of pressing At the same time, half of the domestic soybeans are also applied in the field of pressing It's clear from the first sight which variety is bigger and which interest is heavier When we realize to protect the interests of small and medium-sized pressing enterprises, we may have realized that the launch of yellow soybean No 2 is really imminent 7Kh