Short-term lack of bullish support Rubber prices fluctuate at a low level

On the macro front, the Fed's rate hike was in line with expectations, and Powell reassured the market at his press conference, predicting that a 75 basis point rate hike (the largest since 1994) move would not become the
norm.
The pace of rate hikes will depend on future data
.

On the supply side, Hainan glue production increased in June, eggs are still less than the same period of previous years, and it is expected that the full volume time will be extended to the end of
June.
As of June 17, the purchase price of thick latex was 15,600 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton
week-on-week.
This week, the rainy state continued in Xishuangbanna, which affected the rubber tapping operation; However, on the whole, glue output has gradually increased, and with the narrowing of the glue price difference between Hainan and Yunnan, the competition for local raw materials has cooled
.
As of June 17, the price of Yunnan glue was 13,200 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton
week-on-week.
Thailand Hat Yai glue was 61 baht/kg, down 9%
from last week.
Exports in April 2022 increased by 5.
5% y/y to 58,755 mt, up 10.
2%
m/m.
Of these, 39.
7% were exported to China, followed by the United States at 11.
3%, Finland at 4.
5%, Egypt at 3.
2%, and Iran at 2.
5%.

On the demand side, the operating load of all-steel tires during the week was 58.
63%, an increase of 5.
94 percentage points from last week and 1.
37 percentage points
higher than the same period last year.
The starting load of semi-steel tires was 64.
94%, up 1.
35 percentage points from last week and 11.
8 percentage points
higher than the same period last year.
As of the week of June 10, the inventory of finished steel tires of domestic tire companies was 45 days, down 0 days week-on-week; The inventory of finished semi-steel tires was 44 days, down 0 days
week-on-week.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's tire production in May 2022 was 70.
233 million, down 10%
year-on-year.
From January to May, the production of rubber tire tires fell 9.
3% year-on-year to 340.
873 million units
.

In terms of inventory, as of June 10, the inventory of 16 samples of general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 289,700 tons, up 00,500 tons, or 0.
17%,
from the previous period.
Stocks in the region were 102,700 tons, down 02,700 tons, or 2.
60%,
from the previous period.
The total inventory was 392,300 tons, down 02,200 tons
week-on-week.
As of 06-17, the warehouse order of Tianjiao was 251,480 tons, down 890 tons
week-on-week.
The total inventory of the exchange was 276,827 tons, an increase of 1,402 tons
week-on-week.
As of 06-17, warehouse receipts were 85,760 tons, down 8,428 tons
week-on-week.
The total stock of the exchange was 93,320 tons, down 6,734 tons
week-on-week.

With the improvement of the weather in Thailand, the high price of raw materials fell sharply, while the recovery of the demand side was not obvious, and the price of tianjiao fell
back from the high level.
From a fundamental point of view, the supply of Thailand and Vietnam production areas on the supply side has gradually increased, and the domestic production of Hainan glue has also shown an increasing trend
.
On the demand side, under the background of high finished products and high inventory pressure, the space for tire start improvement is limited, and the procurement demand for natural rubber raw materials is still maintained in the main procurement of rigid demand, and Qingdao's inventory output increased slightly compared with May, which is difficult to give effective support to the market
.
Short-term tianjiao lacks bullish support, and low-level volatility is dominant
.