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On Friday, Shanghai copper opened low and fluctuated during the day, and fell sharply after opening low in the night session, with the main contract falling below the 46000 line and closing at 45760, and London copper and Comex copper both fell by more than 3%.
The decline of Shanghai copper is still mainly affected by the macro bearishness, the re-escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict on Friday triggered a market dive, while overseas manufacturing data continued to weaken, domestic social inventories increased sharply, short-term downstream consumption weak in the context of the fundamental continued weakness, copper prices in the macro suppression combined with the fundamental weakness fell sharply
.
Industry News:
1.
As of last Friday, the social stock of electrolytic copper in Guangdong was 49,600 tons, an increase of 06,900 tons
from last Friday.
Inventories have increased sharply this week, mainly due to: 1.
Arrivals this week remained high; 2.
Shipments within the week hit a new low
this year.
According to the statistics of the Southern Reserve Business Network, the shipment volume in Guangdong this week was only 2,513 tons / day, far below the normal level; Reflecting the impact of the end of the month and factory maintenance, downstream consumption shrank
significantly.
According to this, Guangdong copper stocks are likely to exceed the 50,000-ton mark next week, almost double the same period last year, and the spot market is still not optimistic
.
2.
It is reported that the restart of the Chuquicamata smelter owned by the Chilean national copper company (Codelco) will continue to be postponed until the end of October this year, and the plan to restart in April has not been achieved
.
The plant, one of the world's largest smelters with a capacity of 320,000 tonnes in 2018, was initially shut down in December to meet new emissions standards, and in May it was reported that the Chuquicamata copper mine is expected to reduce production by 40% over the next two years
.
At present, TC continues to be low, restricting the release of smelting capacity, consumption is still expected to improve marginally during the year, and copper prices continue to have limited downward space under the expectation of long-term fundamental improvement, and today's Comex copper opening slightly rebounded can also be verified
.
In short-term operation, the short call option strategy can continue to hold, the short Cu1909C49000 strategy has a cumulative return of 8.
54%, and the current point can be lightly tested long Shanghai copper 1911 forward contract for long-term allocation
.
