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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate
at a high level.
Against the backdrop of the pandemic and the US election, political and economic uncertainties are likely to exacerbate market volatility
.
Since the National Day, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has accumulated about 70,000 tons, and the accumulated amount and the outbound volume are similar
to last year.
Domestic consumption remained strong, with customs data showing a slow recovery
in exports.
It is expected that October is expected to continue to go to the warehouse, and the continuation of the high premium and low inventory after the change month will continue to support Shanghai aluminum
.
However, the gradual increase in supply and consumption are expected to weaken over time, and the high level should not be chased up, and the shock is treated
.
Aluminum ingot inventory data on Monday was 729,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last Friday, and the pace of accumulation after the holiday is still maintained
.
The pace of continuous growth on the domestic supply side accelerated slightly before the holiday, and with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the new production capacity put into operation in the third quarter will release the actual output, and the resumption of production under high profits will follow, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing
.
After the off-season, domestic demand is facing a situation of low peak season, but this "not strong" situation is relative to the previous high year-on-year growth rate, as far as the domestic demand situation in September, it still maintains a year-on-year high growth, and at present, from the downstream feedback, orders in October have not increased significantly month-on-month, maintaining a stable state, and it is expected to maintain year-on-year growth
.
In terms of exports, according to customs data, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September was 426,000 tons, which continued to improve month-on-month and was basically unchanged from the same period last year (430,000 tons).
The current focus of market trading is still on demand growth, and the degree of matching between the two is crucial
as supply growth accelerates and demand grows.
Although in the medium term, the pattern of aluminum supply and demand to excess inhibits aluminum prices, and the inventory returned after the holiday began to accumulate, but the extent of accumulation is acceptable, and the inventory is at an absolute low, before the delivery of this month, aluminum prices have rebounded under the strong drive of spot, focusing on the transaction heat and consumption of the spot market after delivery, and it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will continue to maintain a volatile pattern
.