Shanghai rubber rebound performance is weak short-term is mainly range fluctuations

Market conditions: the daily trend of the two rubber days was weak, and the diving at the end of the day was obvious, closing at 11835 on the day, -1.
13% from the previous trading day; Volume 244266, position 343032, -7384, basis -785, +65, Ru1-May spread -150, -20
.
NR2002 closed at 10100, -0.
83% from the previous trading day; Volume 2152, position 24042, -476, basis -783, +389, NR2-5 spread -225, -10
.

News: 1.
According to wind data, as of last Friday, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 69.
65%, and the semi-steel tire operating rate was 66.
80%.

This was down
from the previous week.
2.
In August 2019, Thailand's export of natural rubber to China was doubled
.
In March and August, the heavy-duty truck industry rose by 2%, and XCMG heavy-duty trucks increased first
.

Market quotation: the quotation of 17-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 11050 (-100) yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 11250 (-100) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 13550 (-100) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 10900 (-50) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan State-owned Rubber Processing Plant remained stable at 10,800 yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 39.
66 (+0.
11) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 41.
33 (+0.
22) baht/kg; Field glue 39.
8 (+0) baht/kg; Cup gum 33.
5 (+0) baht/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1355 (+10) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1355 (+10) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1365 (+10) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 11300 (0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 12400 (0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 406680 tons, -2530 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2001 top 20 long positions 74968, -2756; short positions 112836, -749
.
Long and short are reduced together, net more decreased
.

Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and the weather in Southeast Asia is better, and the supply will increase significantly in the later period
.
On the demand side, the start of semi-steel tire and all-steel tire manufacturers rose slightly this week, but environmental protection factors before the National Day made some factories in Shandong region expect to stop production and limit production, and the overall start of tire manufacturers will decline slightly
.
At present, the rubber tapping season is still facing an oversupply situation, and the rebound of futures prices is weak
.
However, the recent strong performance of synthetic rubber due to the sharp rise in butadiene prices has supported Shanghai rubber
.
Technically, the RU2001 contract closed lower
during the day after experiencing two small white candlesticks recovering.
The recent futures price is located above the 60-day line oscillation, its support is strong, above 12140 around pressure, combined with the current fundamentals, Shanghai rubber short-term or range fluctuations; The NR2002 contract followed the decline, in the short term, the lower support level of 10025 line, the upper pressure of 10235, you can consider range operation
in this range.