Shanghai rubber range oscillation finishing The night session weakened

The opening price of the Nippon 1701 contract is 156.
8 yen/kg, the highest price is 159.
3 yen/kg, the lowest price is 156.
8 yen/kg, and the closing price is 158.
5 yen/kg; The trading volume is 3110 lots, and the position volume is 13346 lots
.

Domestic sales area market
.
14-year state-owned full latex 10600 (0) in Shanghai; 14 years Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shandong 10550 (0)0); The tax-free price of state-owned whole milk in Hengshui area for 14 years is 10,000 (0) yuan / ton, and the price of 15-year private whole milk without tax is 10,100 yuan / ton (0) yuan / ton; Yunnan 16 years private full latex quotation of 11000 (0) yuan / ton
.

The last natural rubber futures warehouse receipt decreased by 370 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 310740 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 60 tons, Yunnan decreased by 210 tons, Shandong decreased by 100 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan Ping
.

The main contract of Shanghai rubber 1701 was range-bound and weakened overnight
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line broke through the 40-day moving average, supported by the 60-day moving average, the technical indicator MACD green column was enlarged, and the moving average system weakened; On the daily chart, the K line broke through the 5-day moving average downward, supported by the 40-day moving average, and the MACD red column continued
.
Lower support at 12520
.
The trading volume fell slightly, and the position volume slightly enlarged
.
Overall, the technical picture is weak
.

Holdings of the main contract of Shanghai rubber (1701): the top 20 members have long positions of 68228 (+2090), short positions of 91930 (+2572), and net short positions of 23702
.

Comprehensive analysis, yesterday's Shanghai rubber range volatility sorted, the night trading weakened
.
For the 09 contract, we still maintain the previous view, you can refer to the RMB composite rubber quotation -300~400 or so forecast
.
Due to weather and other reasons, the lack of new rubber storage has brought support to the 01 contract, and the 09-01 spread closed at 2370 as of the night close, and is expected to still fluctuate
above 2000.
09 is likely to continue weakening
in mid-to-late August.
In the medium and long term, the view
of weak volatility is maintained.

It is recommended that investors operate
between 12500-13100 on the 01 contract.
Before the delivery of the 09 contract, Shanghai rubber may maintain a contract structure of near and weak and far strong, and it is unlikely that the price difference will be repaired significantly
.
You can consider selling short on the 1611 contract, the logic is that part of the warehouse receipt of 09 will be moved to the 11 contract, as the last contract of the 16-year-old rubber, the 9-11 spread is expected to be flat, and even 11 may discount 09
.
However, 11 liquidity is limited, investors should pay attention to liquidity risk
.