Shanghai rubber oscillations to the upside, the market will still make technical adjustments in the future

In the international rubber market, the Tokyo Rubber Index fell 13.
4 yen, or 4.
25%, to 301.
8 yen (kg, the same below), the Singapore Rubber 20 Rubber March contract fell 6.
3 cents, or 2.
81%, to 218 cents, and the March Rubber 3 contract fell 14 cents, or 4.
95%,
to 269 cents.

From the perspective of the trend of Shanghai rubber, Shanghai rubber shows the characteristics of rushing high and falling down, and the price of each contract in the near and forward period runs to the 20200-22400 yuan area, which is lower than the center of gravity of the previous transaction, maintaining the positive basis arrangement of near, low and far high, showing that it is affected by the seasonal law of rubber production, the gradual stabilization of consumer demand, and the gradual reduction of inventory pressure
.

From the perspective of the trend of Tokyo rubber, Tokyo rubber shows the characteristics of rushing high and falling down, the price of each contract in the near and far shows a reverse basis arrangement of near high and far low, running to the 305-340 yen area, the forward July contract trend with a large volume warehouse has a downward pulling effect on the near-term contract, although it is affected by the tight supply of rubber spot and other positive factors, but also by the dollar fell sharply, the yen rose sharply, the general correction of commodities and other negative factors, which caused a bearish effect on the decline of Tokyo rubber
。

From the Singapore rubber trend, No.
3 rubber rush high resistance and back down, running to 270-290 US sub-region, No.
20 rubber also high resistance and back down, running to 221-234 US sub-region, the main reason is that by the general correction of commodities and other negative factors, but the US dollar fell sharply, crude oil regional strong shock, rubber supply and demand relationship turned positive, which may limit Singapore rubber fall space
.

Thailand sold reserves smoothly, enterprises enthusiastically received goods, and the market sentiment was strong, which had a bearish suppression effect
on the futures market.
At present, the fundamentals of tianjiao are more, Hainan and Yunnan have entered the suspension period, and the main production areas of tianjiao in Southeast Asia have gradually entered the suspension period
from the north.

Downstream consumption is strong, heavy trucks in January increased by 122% year-on-year, tire factories increased prices, supporting rubber prices
.

The start of downstream tire manufacturers showed a period of recovery, and most of the factories that had opened returned to normal levels
.
At present, manufacturers that are greatly affected by the US double reverse are already in further negotiations
.

News: January and January vehicle sales fell by 17.
59% y/y, and commercial vehicles maintained a growth trend
.

In summary, the relationship between supply and demand is intertwined with long and short, neutral and multi-trend, therefore, the short-term market of Shanghai rubber will still be technically adjusted, and the medium term may show a volatile upward trend, and the operation should be short-term low absorption and high selling strategy
.