Shanghai rubber opened high and fluctuated, and the trend of futures prices rebounded

News: 1.
Thai Meteorological Bureau: Storm cyclones in Thailand will usher in rainfall in
more than 40 provinces during 23-29 days.
2
.
The U.
S.
Department of Commerce announced tariffs on passenger car tires in South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
3.
ANRPC: Global natural rubber production is expected to increase to 903,000 tons
in April 2021.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 19 years state-owned full latex reported 13300 (+350) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 13150 (+400) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 20000 (+400) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1705 (+20) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 May cargo reported 1705 (+25) US dollars / ton
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant 13000 (+600) yuan / ton, into the concentrated milk plant 13200 (+200) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of glue from dry rubber factory in Mengla area of Yunnan is 12.
7-13.
0 yuan/kg, and the purchase price of glue in concentrated dairy plant is 13.
0-13.
3 yuan/kg
.
Field glue in Hat Yai raw material market in Thailand 64.
2 (+0) baht/kg; Cup glue 44.
9 (+0) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber in North China 1502 market price 13000 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 12200 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 176670 tons, +0 tons; NR warehouse receipt 53989 tons, - 1260 tons
.
Main positions: RU2109 Top 20 Long Positions 107933, -2496; Short Positions 162155, -682; Long and Short Decrease, Net Short Increase
.

Summary: At present, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been cut one after another, and the volume of raw materials in southern Thailand and Yunnan production areas has not been as expected after cutting, and the price of raw materials has remained firm; The output of Hainan production area increased rapidly, and the price difference between glue entering latex factory and entering whole dairy factory has widened
.
In terms of inventory, China's tianjiao inventory maintained a decline, it is understood that arrivals in May are still rare, even spread to June, and imports are expected to remain relatively low in May
.
On the demand side, environmental factors are constrained, some factories in Dongying, Shandong Province have stopped and limited production, and the operating rate of domestic tire factories last week was lowered month-on-month, but this will ease inventory pressure
to a certain extent.
The shortage of foreign trade containers has dragged down manufacturers' shipments and inhibited the start of work, but as the temperature gradually rises, the demand for truck and bus replacement market is expected to recover, and domestic sales are expected to improve
.
The recent fundamentals have not changed much, more affected by macro and peripheral commodity sentiment, with the release of bearish sentiment in the early stage, the futures price shock rebounded, RU2109 contract reduced positions to close higher, short-term attention to the pressure around 13900, it is recommended to trade in the 13500-13900 range; The NR2107 contract is recommended to trade
in the 10950-11250 range.