Shanghai rubber narrow range volatility market sentiment has been boosted

Night trading: RU1901 contract opening price 12150 yuan / ton, the highest price 12305 yuan / ton, the lowest price 12110 yuan / ton, the closing price 12225 yuan / ton; Up 75 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.
62%.

The opening price of the Nichijiao 1902 contract is 166.
1 yen/kg, the highest price is 166.
9 yen/kg, the lowest price is 165.
4 yen/kg, and the closing price is 165.
9 yen/kg; The trading volume was 2695 lots, and the position volume was 13263 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation - (-) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation -(-) yuan/ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk tax quotation 10900/11000 (0/0) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 18 years full latex quotation 10700 (-100) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 1380 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 513760 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 550 tons, Yunnan increased by 100 tons, Shandong decreased by 130 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan decreased by 800 tons
.

As of September 17, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell 3% from the end of August to more than 210,000 tons
.
Preliminary data show that the inventory of mainstream varieties of natural rubber and synthetic rubber has decreased
.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract fluctuated in a narrow range on Wednesday and stabilized overnight
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line rose back above the 40-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green column turned red; On the daily chart, the K line is near the middle band of the previous running space, and the technical indicator MACD green column turns red
.
Trading volume increased, positions declined, and the technical picture was strong
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 77206 (+817), short order 107820 (+338), net short 30614 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
On July 11, 2018, the US government announced a 10% tariff on about $200 billion of goods imported from China, and on August 2, it increased the tax rate to 25%.

On September 18, 2018, the U.
S.
government announced the implementation of tariffs on approximately $200 billion of goods imported from China, starting September 24, 2018, at 10% and from January 1, 2019, to 25%.

The US insistence on going its own way has led to the escalation
of Sino-US trade frictions.
In order to defend free trade and the multilateral system and defend its legitimate rights and interests, China has no choice but to impose tariff measures
on about US$60 billion of listed commodities that have been announced.

In accordance with the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China, the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Import and Export Tariffs and other laws and regulations and the basic principles of international law, with the approval of the State Council, the Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to impose tariffs of 10% or 5% on 5,207 tariff lines and about US$60 billion of goods originating in the United States, effective from 12:01 on September 24
, 2018.
If the US insists on further increasing the tariff rate, China will respond accordingly, and the relevant matters will be announced
separately.

2.
On September 23, the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Algeria may consider increasing oil production by 1 million barrels per day
.

As of the close of the night trading at 11-01, the spread closed at 1585 yuan / ton, and the mixed spot of premium water on the plate was 1625-1825 yuan / ton
.
The stock on the exchange exceeded 510,000 tons, and the high inventory was still a constraint to the rise in the price of Shanghai rubber, and the inventory in the bonded area fell slightly, and the inventory outside the zone fell
slightly.
The data of heavy trucks in August is still not satisfactory, confirming that the inflection point in July is true, the demand in the second half of the year is worrying, and whether the diesel vehicle replacement draft can be implemented for follow-up tracking
.
200 billion boots landed, the project list includes rubber downstream products such as tires, the country gives corresponding countermeasures, and continues to watch the fire, the continuous impact of the incident is still fermenting, and the depreciation of the RMB to a certain extent offset the impact of
tariffs.
The pace of destocking in the domestic market is still slow, the spot market is stable, and the import inversion continues
.
Thailand's phenological conditions are good, and it is expected that the market pressure in Southeast Asia will be high
in the fourth quarter.
Crude oil prices strengthened, the autumn window of the domestic capital market opened, market sentiment has been boosted, and it is expected that the main contract may be dominated by shock sorting within the day
.