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Since October last year, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber has not been able to break through the sideways range of 13,000-14,500 yuan / ton, and the long-short competition is fierce, and the position continues to increase, but the trading volume is gradually shrinking
.
From the current fundamentals, both the bulls and bears have reasons, the bulls are mainly based on the supply contraction after the Spring Festival and the recovery of downstream consumption, and the bears believe that the current Hu high inventory and futures premium pattern is not broken, and the price should not rise
.
According to the global cut-off schedule, Thailand and Vietnam, the main producing regions in Southeast Asia, will begin to enter the shutdown period in February, and the proportion of production in these two countries ranks high, and the global production contraction caused by the shutdown is more obvious
.
Due to the cold air at the beginning of this year, Vietnam may stop cutting early
.
In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of
weather conditions in Southeast Asian production areas on the plate.
Inventories continue to accumulate and are expected to decline after the Spring Festival, and the seasonal contraction of supply coupled with the recovery of downstream consumption will bring about a seasonal decline
in inventories.
At present, the operating rate tends to stabilize, and the Spring Festival in February faces a stage of a significant decline in the operating rate, and then waits for the recovery of downstream consumption after the Spring Festival, and the operating rate will rise again
.
In 2017, export demand was relatively stable, with a slight increase year-on-year, indicating that the foreign economy has begun to recover, and it is expected that export demand can remain stable this year, while paying close attention to the export stimulus
brought by the implementation of domestic infrastructure policies in the United States.
Based on the above supply and demand, because the domestic and foreign supply seasonally shrinked, and the downstream consumption showed a slow decline due to the Spring Festival factor, therefore, Tianjiao will show a weak pattern of supply and demand in February
.
However, based on the current low price, spot support for futures prices will gradually appear
.
In the later stage, we may be able to see the narrowing of the futures price spread, while waiting for the recovery of downstream construction after the Spring Festival, and inventories will follow the downward trend
.
There may be a seasonal upward trend
.
Strategy: Investors are advised to maintain a bullish mindset and look for buying opportunities
.
Risks: high foreign production, a sharp increase in domestic imports, a significant decline in downstream consumption, and a sharp tightening of domestic funds
.
