Shanghai rubber maintained a slight weak shock in the short term

On the macro front, under the influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's shrinking demand, international crude oil is firm but will be limited
.
Thailand's weather is abnormal, and the current global production is still relatively low; Public health events diverged at multiple points, China's cargo transportation and downstream demand were affected, the operating rate of tire enterprises slowed down, spot finished products continued to accumulate, and the upward momentum of the market was continuously suppressed
.
Although the synthetic rubber market has fallen slightly in recent weeks, the cost pressure of alternative rubber is still at a high level, and the market volatility of natural rubber is weak
.

On the supply side, it is reported that thunderstorm warnings in Thailand production areas, rainfall will have an impact on the north and northeast, and the overall shipment of new rubber in Southeast Asia is good, and the price is firm; Among the domestic production areas, the normal increase in rubber tapping in Yunnan, the cutting of Hainan production area is expected to be delayed, and the current global output is still at a relatively low level
.

In terms of demand, the recent national public health events have greatly affected the scope, multi-point divergence has greatly affected the transportation of raw materials and finished products, Shanghai as an important circulation place, as an international bulk raw material circulation place, the current multi-district raw material warehouse can hardly be shipped; Shandong and other major production areas are still very affected by transportation, raw materials come in and finished products go out is difficult and costly, downstream demand is reduced, tire companies reduce the operating load; Secondly, the decline in tire export demand, the current situation in Shanghai has affected the import and export trade of finished products, and it is difficult to recover in the short term, domestic sales shipments have been blocked, and the pressure on finished tire inventory continues to increase
.

In terms of inventory, the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume, the arrival of natural rubber is reduced, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the pace of accumulation has slowed down, and the destocking of rubber inventory has begun, but the process is slow.