Shanghai rubber is weak and volatile Far month contracts are difficult to have a strong performance

Night trading: RU1901 contract opens at 12,000 yuan / ton, the highest price is 12,095 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 11,925 yuan / ton, and the closing price is 12,025 yuan / ton; Up 25 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.
21%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1901 contract is 168.
2 yen/kg, the highest price is 169.
5 yen/kg, the lowest price is 167.
5 yen/kg, and the closing price is 167.
8 yen/kg; The trading volume was 3026 lots, and the position was 8963 lots
.

In terms of spot, the domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16-year full latex quotation 10200/10300 (0/+100) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation -(-) yuan/ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 10500/10600 (0/+100) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10300/10400 (0/+100) yuan / ton
.

In terms of inventory, the warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 3450 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 506890 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 430 tons, Yunnan increased by 100 tons, Shandong increased by 1250 tons, Tianjin increased by 3800 tons, and Hainan decreased by 1270 tons
.
As of August 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell slightly by about 0.
8% to 204,600 tons
.
Although the overall stock of rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone declined, there were slight differences in individual varieties: the stock of styrene-butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the stock of tobacco flake rubber increased
slightly.
Specific varieties are 77,200 tons of natural rubber, 123,700 tons of synthetic rubber, and 03,700 tons
of compound rubber.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract fluctuated weakly during the day, and fell back in overnight trading
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line returned to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and the technical indicator MACD green column turned red; On the daily chart, the K-line is at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range, and the technical indicator MACD red bar turns green
.
Trading volume and position volume declined, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 79821 (-1709), short 113001 (-2568), net short 33180 lots
.

Views and Suggestions:

1.
The first commercial vehicle network recently learned that in August this year, China's heavy-duty truck market sold a total of 72,000 units, down 4% from the previous month and down 23%
from 93,700 units in the same period last year.
It was the third decline this year and the biggest monthly
decline in monthly sales so far this year.
In addition to August, the other two declining months were February and July, when sales fell 13% and 17%,
respectively.
According to the analysis of the first commercial vehicle network, there are three reasons for the accelerated decline of the heavy-duty truck market in August
.
First, the market demand for heavy-duty trucks has fallen rapidly with the arrival of the high temperature season and the rainy season, and the demand for August is even more sluggish, and the demand for both tractors and engineering vehicles is in a trough; Second, the inventory of the heavy truck industry is high, which brings certain pressure to dealers and the market in the second half of the year, and heavy truck manufacturers and dealers use the traditional off-season to "digest" inventory and prepare for the "golden nine silver ten"; Third, the tractor market has been adversely affected by the overdraft, excess vehicles and low road freight rates brought about by the implementation of the new policy last year, and has not improved so far, continuing to inhibit the purchase demand
for new vehicles.

Since September, the demand of the terminal market has gradually "climbed out" of the trough and picked up, and the orders of various enterprises have rebounded month-on-month, but the obvious recovery trend has not yet appeared, and the traditional "Golden Nine" season has not really
arrived.
Whether the Golden Nine can come will determine the final direction and development trend of the heavy truck market in the fourth quarter - after all, with the arrival of the fourth quarter environmental protection production and labor restriction season, the heavy truck market will face another big test
.

2.
Michelin North America said it will restart its five-year-old Starr plant in South Carolina that produces giant mining tires
.
Due to a slowdown in global demand for mining tires, the plant suspended production
at the end of 2015.
Bruce Brankert, head of Michelin's global mining tires, said Michelin began the process of restarting the plant a few months ago and is producing a small number of tyres
every day.

Bractt said the tires built at the Starr plant are used almost exclusively for open-pit mining
.
The plant has a production capacity
of 57 and 63 inch mining tires.
The global economic recovery has fueled the plant's huge mining tires
.
The company will steadily ramp up production in the coming months, with full volume production
by the third quarter of 2019.

At the plant's opening ceremony in 2013, Michelin said it was one of
only three Michelin plants in the world capable of making 63-inch tires.
80% of the plant's output is expected to be exported, mainly to Canada, South America and Australia
.

As of the close of the night trading 09-01 price spread closed at 1705 yuan / ton, the plate premium mixed spot 1525-1625 yuan / ton
.
Exchange inventories exceeded 500,000 tons, and high inventories are still a constraint
to the rise in Shanghai rubber prices.
The operating rate of domestic tire companies has fallen, the preferential policy withdrawal from the third and fourth lines of consumption is insufficient, and the industry is pessimistic
about the downstream car market.
The data of heavy trucks in August is still not ideal, confirming that the inflection point in July is true, and the demand in the second half of the year is worrying, can the gold nine silver ten arrive as scheduled? The uncertainty of the levy list of 200 billion export products to the United States remains, the trade war has become a protracted war, the pace of destocking in the domestic market is slow, and after entering the September delivery month, it is expected that the far month contract will not have a strong performance under the drag of recent months, and yesterday's night trading rushed back down, and the main contract fluctuated
repeatedly within the day today or at the 12,000 mark.