Shanghai rubber is expected to end the decline and start a rebound market

The recent weakening of the yen in Tokyo and the first increase in Japan's manufacturing index in August for the first time in six months have greatly boosted market confidence, and the Tokyo market rose
strongly.
China's August manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations and returned to expansion territory
.
By the end of August, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 16.
9%, of which natural rubber fell significantly
.

The top 20 members of the main contract of Shanghai rubber 1701 have a dominant net short position, and the long and short positions are mainly greatly reduced, and the short position increase is large
.
Shanghai rubber pay attention to the strong pressure level of 12500 line, Shanghai rubber recent to a large range of shock trend mainly, if the break to stabilize the 12500 line can be light position test more, break 12000 can test short, the recent market fluctuations are large
, it is recommended to wait and see.

Since the end of August, the delivery pressure of huge inventories has made Shanghai rubber futures bottoming out.

However, supported by positive factors such as the strengthening of economic data and the arrival of the consumption season, the main 1701 contract of Shanghai rubber stopped at the integer mark of 12,000 yuan / ton, and began to rebound, and yesterday it broke through 12,500 yuan / ton, closing up
again.
As the downstream car market still performs well in the off-season, the market has high expectations for peak season sales, and increased optimism is expected to push up upstream raw materials, and Tianjiao may benefit from ending the decline, thus starting a small rebound cycle
.

In addition to raw material stocking, the operating rate of tire factories also stopped falling and rebounded
.
Data show that the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises in China last week was 72.
38%, up 0.
21%
week-on-week.
Although the operating rate of all-steel tire enterprises was slightly lower week-on-week, the operating rate of individual enterprises in the sample remained at a high level of 90%, and the operating of other enterprises also remained at 70%.

On the whole, the temporary weakening of the expectation of a US dollar interest rate hike will help commodities to launch a restorative rebound
.
At the same time, although the current inventory of Tianjiao futures is huge, with the concentrated delivery of 1609 contracts in recent months and the arrival of the downstream consumption season, the negative impact is expected to gradually dissipate, and positive factors have begun to be paid attention to
.
Therefore, it is expected that Shanghai rubber is expected to end the decline and start a rebound market, and the main 1701 contract of Shanghai rubber will rise back above 13,000 yuan / ton
.