Shanghai rubber intraday shock weakened night trading shock slightly repaired

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract opening price 12380 yuan / ton, the highest price 12470 yuan / ton, the lowest price 12380 yuan / ton, the closing price 12410 yuan / ton; Up 30 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.
24%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1901 contract is 174 yen/kg, the highest price is 174.
3 yen/kg, the lowest price is 172.
1 yen/kg, and the closing price is 172.
3 yen/kg; The trading volume was 1967 lots, and the position volume was 13361 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation 10200 (+100/0) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation -(-) yuan/ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 10500/10600 (0/+100) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10300 (0/0) yuan / ton
.

The last natural rubber futures warehouse receipt increased by 410 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 491970 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 490 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong decreased by 70 tons, Tianjin decreased by 10 tons, and Hainan Ping
.

As of July 31, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3% from the middle of this month to 206,200 tons
.
The increase in inventory in this period was mainly driven by the inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber
.
Among them, the inventory of synthetic rubber increased more
.
In terms of sub-items, natural rubber is 79,800 tons, synthetic rubber is 122,700 tons, and compound rubber is 03,700 tons
.

【Technical Analysis】

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract weakened intraday volatility on Friday, and the night volatility repaired
slightly.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line fell back below the 20-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red column turned green; On the daily chart, the K-line fell back below the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continued
.
The volume and position increased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long orders 74589 (+1341), short orders 101973 (+2152), net short 27384 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
According to foreign media news, US tire sales in 2018 are expected to increase by 1% to 320 million
.
Among them, the original matching tire increased by 2.
1%, and the replacement tire increased slightly by 0.
7%.

In terms of original tires, truck and bus tires may increase by 13.
4% year-on-year, leading the market
.
Passenger tires increased by 1.
6%, while light truck tires decreased by 5.
7%.

Replacement tires increased by 2.
5% y/y, passenger tires increased by 0.
7%, and light truck tires decreased by 0.
3%.

2.
According to Indian media reports, in the second quarter of 2018, India's tianjiao production fell by 12% year-on-year to 126,000 tons, which was a low point in nearly six years; while consumption increased by 14% year-on-year to 302,000 tons, with a consumption gap of 176,000 tons
.
The consumption gap widened to 58% from 46%
in the same period last year.

In the past two months, the consumption of tianjiao has remained above 100,000 tons, while the output of tianjiao in each month in the second quarter is less than 45,000 tons
.
This has put the Indian tire industry in a precarious position
.
This requires that more celestial rubber must be imported to meet market demand
.
But tariffs of up to 25% add to the burden
.

As of the close of the night trading 09-01 price difference closed at 2030 yuan / ton, the plate premium mixed spot 2010-2210 yuan / ton
.
As of July 31, 2018, rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3% from the middle of this month, exchange inventories remained high, and imports in July were high, and high inventories were still a constraint
to the rise in Shanghai rubber prices.
With the transfer of positions in September, the market is upward but the fundamentals still lack the momentum to continue to rise, and there is great uncertainty in the expectations of downstream demand driven by loose fiscal and RMB depreciation in the second half of the year, on the contrary, the certainty of oversupply and high inventory is relatively high; Market transmission Haikou meeting No.
20 glue is expected to be listed in the first quarter of next year, and the market has fallen
.
It is expected that Shanghai rubber will mainly follow the trend, and the intraday will be
mainly volatile finishing.