Shanghai rubber futures price closed up in the later stage, you need to beware of supply risks in the production area

News: 1.
In the first half of 2021, Michelin tire sales increased by 22.
8%
year-on-year.
2.
In the first half of 2021, Thailand's export volume increased by 21% year-on-year, while the mixed rubber decreased by 30%.

3.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: In early to mid-July, 11 key enterprises completed vehicle production of 806,000 units, down 33%
y/y.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 19-year state-owned full latex reported 12900 (+50) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 12650 (+50) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 warehouse spot reported 1690 (+0) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 August cargo reported 1675 (+0) US dollars / ton
.
Qingdao area RMB Thai mix 12050 (+0) yuan / ton, RMB horse mix 11950 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant 12100 (+0) yuan / ton, into the concentrated dairy plant 12100 (+0) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of glue in dry rubber factory in Yunnan production area refers to 11.
8-12.
2 (0/0) yuan/kg, and the purchase price of glue in concentrated dairy plant refers to 11.
8-12.
2 (0/0) yuan/kg
.
Thailand Hat Yai raw material market field glue 45.
5 (+1.
5) baht/kg; Cup glue 45.
3 (+0.
5) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price 13600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 14100 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 177410 tons, +0 tons; NR warehouse receipt 40824 tons, - 403 tons
.
Main positions: RU2109 top 20 long positions 76273, - 4004; short positions 110555, - 9003; long and short are reduced together, net space is reduced
.

Summary: At present, the global glue is in a seasonal production increase cycle, and the epidemic situation in the major rubber-producing countries in Southeast Asia is grim, and it is necessary to beware of supply risks
in the production area in the later stage.
The output of raw materials in domestic production areas is high, and the price of glue into the concentrated dairy plant and the full latex plant is flat, which is conducive to the increase of the amount of
full latex.
In terms of inventory, the bonded inventory in Qingdao has risen slightly recently, the speed of general trade inventory consumption has been significantly reduced, the rapid increase in 3L arrivals in Vietnam, and the accumulation range of light-colored rubber will increase
.
On the demand side, the early maintenance manufacturers resumed work, and the operating rate of domestic tire factories rebounded month-on-month last week, but considering the overall inventory pressure and environmental protection and other factors, the start of enterprises is still more cautious
.
On the market, the RU2109 contract reduced its position and closed higher, focusing on the pressure around 13450 in the short term, and it is recommended to trade in the 13250-13450 range; The NR2109 contract is recommended to trade
in the 10850-11100 range.