Shanghai rubber fell sharply, and the short-term technical picture was weak

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1705 contract opening price 18830 yuan / ton, the highest price 18840 yuan / ton, the lowest price 18520 yuan / ton, the latest price 18560 yuan / ton; It fell by 270 yuan / ton, down 1.
43%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1707 contract is 290 yen/kg, the highest price is 290.
8 yen/kg, the lowest price is 269.
5 yen/kg, and the closing price is 269.
7 yen/kg; The trading volume is 10581 lots, and the position volume is 11234 lots
.

Domestic sales area market: Shanghai market, Yunnan 15-year full latex quotation 18500 (-100) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 15-year full latex quotation 18500 (-100) yuan / ton; Hengshui market, 15-year Yunxiang whole milk quotation 17900 yuan / ton (-100) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 16 years private full latex offer 19800 (0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 120 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 267470 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 70 tons, Yunnan Ping, Shandong increased by 90 tons, Tianjin Ping, Hainan increased by 100 tons
.

The main contract of Shanghai rubber 1705 fell sharply on Thursday, and the night trading continued
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line fell back below the moving average system, the moving average system weakened, and the technical indicator MACD green column enlarged; On the daily chart, the K-line returns below the moving average, and the MACD green bar zooms in.

Volume and position volume amplification
.
Overall, short-term technical aspects are weak
.

Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai rubber fell
sharply on Thursday.
We expect a significant decline
in demand for replacement heavy trucks from April.
The demand for heavy trucks began with the overload check in September last year, but this policy stimulus can only increase the demand for supporting markets in the short term, and the purchasing power of large-scale logistics, infrastructure and other heavy truck demand has been basically saturated
.
The replacement market for all-steel tires accounts for more than
80% of the demand for all-steel tires.
The entire industrial chain from rubber farmers, second-plate merchants, rubber manufacturers, traders, tire factories, dealers inventory are at a high level, so from the perspective of futures reflecting expectations, the rise of rubber in the early stage has fully realized the good, market sentiment has changed, we expect that 22,000 points may be the high point of the year, and the subsequent may continue to fall
.
It is recommended that investors wait and see, and can test short
positions lightly when they are high.