Shanghai rubber extended its decline, and the bears took profits

In the past week, the total position of the Shanghai rubber 1805 contract has shown a moderate narrowing scene, and the position of the top 20 seats has also decreased simultaneously, but the short position is stronger than the long.

Exchange position data shows that the position of the top 20 long positions fell from 112902 on February 2 to 103,400 on February 9, a cumulative decrease of 9,502 lots; The position of the top 20 bears fell from 155239 lot on February 2 to 140026 lot on February 9, a cumulative decrease of 15213 lots
.

The price of Shanghai rubber fell significantly in the short term, the problem of high premium water has been alleviated, and the motivation for further pressure on bears has weakened
.
When the rubber price was close to 12,000 yuan / ton, the net short position of the top 20 seats declined
.
The data shows that the net short position of the top 20 seats of the Shanghai Rubber 1805 contract fell sharply from 42,339 lots on February 2 to 36,626 lots on February 9, a net decrease of 5,713 lots, a decrease of 13.
49%.

In terms of single-day positions, on February 9, among the top 20 seats of the Shanghai rubber 1805 contract, both bulls and bears showed a significant reduction in holdings, but the bears reduced their holdings stronger than the bulls
.
Among them, the long position reduced by 5820 lots, and the short position reduced by 10149 lots
.

Specifically, among the top 20 bears, 17 seats were reduced, and only 3 seats were increased
.
Among them, the seats of Yongan Futures, CITIC Futures, Haitong Futures and Industrial Futures decreased by 1447, 1230, 1205 and 1155
respectively 。 At the same time, the China World Futures Seat, Galaxy Futures Seat, Guotai Junan Futures Seat, Shenwan Futures Seat, GF Futures Seat, Orient Futures Seat, Ruida Futures Seat, Huatai Futures Seat, Earth Futures Seat, BOC Futures Seat and South China Futures Seat also reduced their holdings significantly, reducing by 593 lots, 573 lots, 458 lots, 618 lots, 429 lots, 449 lots, 349 lots, 347 lots, 437 lots, 391 lots and 374 lots
respectively.
In terms of overweight, only COFCO Futures and Founder Medium-term Futures increased their holdings by 183 and 192 respectively, slightly prominent
.

Among the top 20 bulls, 17 were reduced and 3 were
overweighted.
Among them, Galaxy Futures Seat, Founder Medium-term Futures Seat, Everbright Futures Seat, South China Futures Seat and Ruida Futures Seat ranked first, reducing their holdings by 1202 lots, 900 lots, 695 lots, 636 lots and 604 lots respectively
.
At the same time, the Yongan Futures Seat, SDIC Anxin Futures Seat, Huishang Futures Seat, China International Futures Seat, Luzheng Futures Seat, Zhongda Futures Seat and Zhejiang Futures Seat also reduced their holdings significantly, reducing by 449 lots, 478 lots, 259 lots, 244 lots, 284 lots, 235 lots and 182 lots respectively
.
In terms of increasing holdings, only Haitong Futures seats, Hongyuan Futures seats and Guohai Liangshi Futures seats increased by 425, 263 and 139 respectively, which was more obvious
.

The cost of domestic rubber tapping is 12,000 yuan / ton, and as the 1805 contract approaches this price, the pressure of bears has weakened
.
Considering the obvious decline in short-term Shanghai rubber prices, the willingness of short positions to reduce positions has increased
.
In the future, the Shanghai rubber 1805 contract is expected to find support around 12,000 yuan / ton and stop falling and stabilize
.