Shanghai rubber continues to fluctuate, maintaining near weakness and far strong

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1701 contract opened at 12345 yuan / ton, the highest price was 12395 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 12310 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 12350 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton, up 0.
04%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1701 contract is 150.
5 yen/kg, the highest price is 154.
4 yen/kg, the lowest price is 150.
5 yen/kg, and the closing price is 154.
4 yen/kg; The trading volume was 3472 lots, and the position volume was 11296 lots
.

Domestic sales area market
.
14-year state-owned full latex 10150 (-50) in Shanghai; 14 years Yunnan state-owned whole milk 10100 (-100) in Shandong; The tax-free price of state-owned whole milk in Hengshui area in 14 years is 9900 (-100) yuan / ton, and the 15-year private whole milk tax-free quotation is 10100 yuan / ton (-100) yuan / ton; Yunnan 16 years private full latex quotation 10150 (-150) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 2070 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the last period was reported at 312240 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 370 tons, Yunnan decreased by 750 tons, Shandong decreased by 340 tons, Tianjin decreased by 400 tons, and Hainan decreased by 210 tons
.

The main contract of Shanghai Rubber 1701 was weak and volatile
yesterday.
From the 60-minute candlestick chart, the K-line oscillates near the short-term moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continues; On the daily chart, the K line fell back below the moving average system, the MACD green bar continued, and the lower support was the previous low of 12110, which was strong
.
The volume increased significantly and the position volume decreased
.
Overall, the technical picture is weak
.

Holdings of the main contract (1701) of Shanghai rubber: the top 20 members have long positions of 67399 (+323), short positions of 89144 (-3039), and net short positions of 21745
.

Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai rubber continued to fluctuate on
Monday.
For the 09 contract, we still maintain the previous view, you can refer to the RMB composite rubber quotation -300~400 or so forecast
.
Due to weather and other reasons, the lack of new rubber storage brought support to the 01 contract, and the 09-01 spread closed at 2155 as of the night close, widening
slightly.
09The expectation that 09 may continue to weaken in mid-to-late August has largely materialized
.
In the medium and long term, the view
of weak volatility is maintained.

It is recommended that investors operate between 12110-13000 in the upper area of the 01 contract, the recent decline is more affected by the short hedging order, and is expected to stabilize and strengthen in mid-to-late November, if dragged down by the recent contract to the lower edge of the range price, you can consider establishing long positions
one after another.
Before the delivery of the 09 contract, Shanghai rubber may maintain a near, weak and far strong contract structure, and the spread is expected to repair to around
2000.
The short order on the 1611 contract can continue to be held, the logic is that part of the warehouse receipt of 09 will be moved to the 11 contract, as the last contract of the 16-year-old rubber, the 9-11 spread is expected to be flat, and even 11 may discount 09, and the final price may be near
the 10,000 yuan integer mark.
However, 11 liquidity is limited, investors should pay attention to liquidity risk
.