Shanghai Rubber continues to be weak and maintains near weakness and far strong

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1701 contract opened at 12345 yuan / ton, the highest price was 12415 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 12255 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 12350 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton, up 0.
04%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1701 contract is 149.
5 yen/kg, the highest price is 151.
3 yen/kg, the lowest price is 149.
1 yen/kg, and the closing price is 150.
4 yen/kg; The trading volume was 4092 lots, and the position volume was 12240 lots
.

Domestic sales area market
.
14-year state-owned full latex 10200 (+50) in Shanghai; 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shandong 10200 (+50); The 14-year state-owned whole milk tax-free price in Hengshui area is 10,000 (+100) yuan/ton, and the 15-year private whole milk tax-free price is 10,200 yuan/ton (+100) yuan/ton; Yunnan 16 years private full latex quotation of 10300 (0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 3540 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 314310 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 1010 tons, Yunnan decreased by 450 tons, Shandong increased by 3270 tons, Tianjin decreased by 290 tons, and Hainan Ping
.

The main contract of Shanghai rubber 1701 fluctuated weakly during the day, and the night trading stabilized
.
From the 60-minute candlestick chart, the K-line returns above the short-term moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green bar turns red; On the daily chart, the K line fell back below the moving average system, and the MACD green column continued to show signs of amplification, and the lower support was the previous low of 12150
.
The trading volume decreased significantly and the position volume increased
slightly.
Overall, the technical picture is weak
.

Positions of the main contract (1701) of Shanghai rubber: the top 20 members have long positions of 67187 (+1175), short positions of 92183 (+266), and net short positions of 24996
.

Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai rubber continued to be weak on Friday, and the night session stabilized
.
For the 09 contract, we still maintain the previous view, you can refer to the RMB composite rubber quotation -300~400 or so forecast
.
Due to weather and other reasons, the lack of new rubber storage brought support to the 01 contract, and the 09-01 spread closed at 2120 as of the night session, widening
slightly.
09The expectation that 09 may continue to weaken in mid-to-late August has largely materialized
.
In the medium and long term, the view
of weak volatility is maintained.

It is recommended that investors operate between 12150-13000 in the upper area of the 01 contract, the recent decline is more affected by the short hedging market, and it is expected to stabilize and strengthen in mid-to-late November, investors pay attention to the
rhythm.
Before the delivery of the 09 contract, Shanghai rubber may maintain a near, weak and far strong contract structure, and the spread is expected to repair to around
1800-2000.
The short order on the 1611 contract can continue to be held, the logic is that part of the warehouse receipt of 09 will be moved to the 11 contract, as the last contract of the 16-year-old rubber, the 9-11 spread is expected to be flat, and even 11 may discount 09, and the final price may be near
the 10,000 yuan integer mark.
However, 11 liquidity is limited, investors should pay attention to liquidity risk
.