Shanghai rubber continued to be weak and flattened overnight

The opening price of the Nippon 1701 contract is 151.
7 yen/kg, the highest price is 152.
8 yen/kg, the lowest price is 148.
6 yen/kg, and the closing price is 149.
4 yen/kg; The trading volume was 4653 lots, and the position volume was 11024 lots
.

Domestic sales area market
.
Shanghai area 14 years state-owned full latex 10150 (-200); 14 years Yunnan state-owned whole milk 10150 (-200) in Shandong; The tax-free price of state-owned whole milk in Hengshui area for 14 years was 9900 (-200) yuan/ton, and the price of 15-year private whole milk tax-free was 10100 yuan/ton (-100) yuan/ton; Yunnan 16 years private full latex quotation of 10300 (-200) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 1880 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 310770 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 180 tons, Yunnan decreased by 1370 tons, Shandong decreased by 140 tons, Tianjin decreased by 170 tons, and Hainan decreased by 20 tons
.

The main contract of Shanghai Rubber 1701 fell sharply and was flat
overnight.
From the 60-minute candlestick chart, the K-line oscillates along the lower edge of the moving average system, and the technical indicator MACD green bar narrows; On the daily chart, the K candlestick fell back below the moving average system, a long black candlestick covered the previous white line, the MACD green column continued to show signs of amplification, and the lower support was the previous low of 12150
.
The trading volume was greatly enlarged, and the position volume decreased
slightly.
Overall, the technical picture is weak
.

Holdings of the main contract (1701) of Shanghai rubber: the top 20 members have long positions of 66158 (+1351), short positions of 92148 (+2326), and net short positions of 25990
.

Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai rubber continued to be weak, and the night trading was flat
.
For the 09 contract, we still maintain the previous view, you can refer to the RMB composite rubber quotation -300~400 or so forecast
.
Due to weather and other reasons, the lack of new rubber storage brought support to the 01 contract, and the 09-01 spread closed at 2085 as of the night session, basically the same
as yesterday.
09The expectation that 09 may continue to weaken in mid-to-late August has largely materialized
.
In the medium and long term, the view
of weak volatility is maintained.

It is recommended that investors operate between 12150-13000 in the upper area of the 01 contract, the recent decline is more affected by the short hedging market, and it is expected to stabilize and strengthen in mid-to-late November, investors pay attention to the
rhythm.
Before the delivery of the 09 contract, Shanghai rubber may maintain a near, weak and far strong contract structure, and the spread is expected to repair to around
1800-2000.
The short order on the 1611 contract can continue to be held, the logic is that part of the warehouse receipt of 09 will be moved to the 11 contract, as the last contract of the 16-year-old rubber, the 9-11 spread is expected to be flat, and even 11 may discount 09, and the final price may be near
the 10,000 yuan integer mark.
However, 11 liquidity is limited, investors should pay attention to liquidity risk
.