Shanghai medium-term futures: The possibility of OPEC production cuts has pushed oil prices higher

The futures price of the main contract of crude oil fluctuated to the upside
overnight.
The main reason is that Saudi Arabia said that even if Iran's supply returns, it will hedge the increase in supply by further production cuts to support oil prices
.

On the supply side, OPEC+ decided to slightly increase production by 100,000 b/d in September, which was lower than market expectations, reflecting the lack of willingness of
producers to increase production significantly.
U.
S.
crude oil production recorded 12 million b/d in the week ended Aug.
19, down 100,000 b/d
from last week.
Crude oil production maintained a low growth rate
.

On the demand side, under high inflationary pressure, the market's expectations for a sharp interest rate hike by the Fed remain, recession worries continue, and crude oil demand is under pressure
.
The average operating load of domestic main refineries for the week ended August 15 was 69.
46%, up 0.
94%
from the end of July.
In late August, Yanshan Petrochemical 2# atmospheric pressure relief unit and Hohhot Petrochemical were still under maintenance, and Yumen Petrochemical, North China Petrochemical and Dalian Xitai Petrochemical may gradually end their maintenance, and it is expected that the average operating load of domestic main refineries will continue to rise
.
The average operating load of the Shandong Dilian Constant Pressure Relief Device in the week ended August 24 was 60.
48%, down 2.
57%
from last week.
There is no planned maintenance of the refinery in the short term, but it is not ruled out that other factors may cause the refinery to reduce the burden
.

It is expected that Shandong Georefinery will continue to reduce the pressure and start load or continue to decline
.
Overall, the current changes in the demand for crude oil market are the main factors affecting the market mentality, but due to the continued tight supply, it is operationally recommended to pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's interest rate hike while focusing on swing trading
.