Shanghai Jinpeng: soybean weekly review

Introduction: this week, the domestic and foreign soybean futures market presents a weak overall market, and the focus is gradually moving down The price of CBOT soybean rose first and then decreased, and the weekly K-line was a relatively long inverted hammer shaped male line, indicating a lot of resistance above In September, the trend of the spot market appeared to be more weak The price of the spot market fell below the closing price last week, and the support of 480 cents has been effectively broken down We found from the long positions of funds announced by CFTC last week that the net long positions held by the funds in soybean contracts have been significantly reduced, while the commercial short selling remains unchanged, and the degree of opposition between the two sides is still very serious The weekly export report released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) on Thursday showed a certain negative side The number of soybean exports is far less than what the market people estimated The main reason is that China's purchase volume has been reduced The CBOT period price will not be substantially boosted until Chinese buyers have re entered the market In fact, this round of soybean's rise is a typical case of the fund's correct understanding of the weather change and launching the market After last week's rainfall, the future weather will no longer play a leading role in the period price with the alleviation of high temperature and drought It is in this context that the main reason for the decline of the period price is that the fund reduces the long position After all, good luck will not always be accompanied by "weather" When traders lose their attention to weather factors, they will turn their attention to fundamental changes, which will become the focus of debate between the long and short sides in the future, and will also be the fuse of price breakthrough This week's Liandou period price was adjusted at a low level In addition to the recent S9 contract still operating in the decline channel, other contracts showed some signs of stabilization, indicating that the market had a breathing demand after nearly 200 points of decline Traders were busy with the adjustment of position structure this week, waiting for the breakthrough direction of CBOT period price Domestic fundamentals are still mixed In the first half of this week, the import volume of soybeans announced by the Customs was 5.972 million tons, an increase of 69% over the same period last year Meanwhile, the news from Heilongjiang Province, the production area, also shows that under the adverse situation of severe dry season and sharp reduction of soybean planting area this year, the total output of soybeans across the country has not decreased by a large margin as expected, but rather by a certain amount Growth On the premise of abundant production, the higher price in the futures market has certain attraction for spot merchants The stock of the stock exchange has reached 300000 tons by the end of last week, which has formed a greater real price pressure on many parties Until next week, the S9 contract's unilateral position is still up to 220 thousand tons Next week's actions on the S9 contract will have a significant impact on the forward contract If the other parties abandon the real offer, the fall in the latter market will be inevitable Investors must keep sober thinking and take short line thinking to deal with it After all, the adjustment is still the main trend in the second half of the year.