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LME copper opened low and rebounded on Wednesday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was at $6170/ton, unchanged from yesterday.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper rebounded, with the highest 48980 yuan / ton, the lowest 48640 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 48860 yuan / ton, down 0.
31% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 82785 lots, with a daily increase of 25186 lots; The position was 122,400 lots, an increase of 3,179 lots
per day.
The basis was expanded to -100 yuan/ton; The price spread of Shanghai copper in 2002-2003 widened to -130 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The ISM non-manufacturing index in the United States was 55 in December, better than market expectations of 54.
5 and the previous value of 53.
9
.
(2) Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired dozens of surface-to-surface missiles
at the Assad Air Base of the US military in Iraq.
(3) Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, saw its November copper production fall 11% year-on-year to 155,200 tons, and Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, saw its November copper production decrease by 1.
5% year-on-year to 103,200 tons
, the Chilean Copper Commission.
Spot analysis, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 48600-48680 yuan / ton, the average price of 48760 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton
daily.
There are many dumpers in the intraday market, it is difficult for premium quotations to attract trade speculators, traders expect a lower supply, although there is a bargain replenishment downstream, but it is still difficult to reverse the situation of oversupply, and the willingness of traders to ship for cash before the Spring Festival will become increasingly obvious
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 64,283 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 1,398 tons; On January 7, LME copper stocks were 140925 tons, down 1,975 tons per day, and fell for 30 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contracts were 81780 lots, a daily increase of 1626 lots, short positions were 86611 lots, a daily increase of 1418 lots, a net short position of 4831 lots, a daily decrease of 208 lots, both long and short increases, and net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: On January 8, the main force of Shanghai copper in 2003 rebounded
.
The US service PMI data for December was better than expected, market optimism has risen, while Chilean copper mine production has fallen year-on-year, and domestic copper TC prices are at a low level, the supply side performance is tight, superimposed on the London copper inventory continues to deteriorate, has fallen to a new low since March last year, copper price support strengthened, but tensions in the Middle East intensified, market risk aversion is high, investment is more inclined to safe-haven assets, superimposed downstream demand has weakened, copper prices are hindered
。 In terms of spot, there are many dumpers in the intraday market, it is difficult for premium quotations to attract trade speculators, traders expect a lower supply, and although there is a bargain replenishment downstream, it is still difficult to reverse the situation
of oversupply.
Technically, the main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper closed the doji, focusing on the support at the 48600 position below, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.
