Shanghai copper volatility rises Short-term wide volatility is expected

Market focus: (1) The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 1.
371 million after the quarterly adjustment in August, an increase of 1.
35 million expected, and an increase of 1.
763 million in the previous value; the unemployment rate fell to 8.
4%, 9.
8% expected, and 10.
2%
in the previous month.
(2) On September 4, Codelco workers warned that they would take "action" during the coronavirus pandemic to address what they called a job threat
.
(3) China's imports of copper ore and its concentrate in August were 1.
587 million tons, down 11.
6% month-on-month and 12.
6%
year-on-year.
(4) China's unwrought copper imports in August were 668,500 tons, down 12.
3% month-on-month and up 67.
12%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On September 7, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 52530-52750 yuan / ton, with an average price of 52640 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 1190 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 60,032 tons, an increase of 1,426 tons per day; On September 4, LME copper stocks were 82,450 tons, down 2,200 tons per day, down for 17 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended September 4, the previous Shanghai copper inventory was reported at 176873 tons, a weekly increase of 6,787 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2010 contracts were 81623 lots, minus 1692 lots per day, 75555 short positions, minus 1326 lots per day, net long positions were 6068 lots, daily minus 366 lots, long and short were reduced, net long and long decreased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2010 rushed back on
September 7.
The latest economic data released from the United States performed well, and the non-farm payrolls data was better than expected, which supported the dollar index; At the same time, the domestic market demand has not seen significant improvement, the operating rate of copper enterprises in August continued to decline month-on-month, and Shanghai copper inventories still increased slightly, limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices.
However, China's copper mine imports fell month-on-month in August, and copper processing fees TC remained low, and raw material supply continued tightly; Coupled with the decline in copper inventories to a new low in nearly 14 years, and the closure of the domestic import window, the number of imported copper fell month-on-month, supporting copper prices
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2010 contract volume is longer in the upper shadow, and there is obvious resistance above the 53000 level, and it is expected to fluctuate
in a wide short-term range.